Knockout Math

Champions League 2026/27: qualification chances

Champions League 2026/27, league phase. The current table, your predictions and every team's chances of going through. 54 of 144 matches played. League overview and every team's chances →

    Big matches coming up

    For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

    Frequently asked questions

    What is Knockout Math?

    An independent tool showing the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League tables and calculating every team's chances of going through. For each outcome you can see what it means: how many points are needed, which fixtures decide it and how the odds move.

    How do I use the table?

    Pick a competition at the top and read the chances on the right: top 8, 9th–24th and elimination. In the match list you can enter your own predictions for the remaining fixtures and the table and probabilities update instantly. Click a team to open its page with all fixtures and scenarios.

    How many points are usually needed to go through?

    For 24th place or better, 9 points are usually enough in the Champions League, 9 in the Europa League and 7 in the Conference League. A top-8 finish needs 16, 16 and 12 points respectively.

    How reliable are these numbers?

    They are probabilities from 30,000 simulations per competition, not a prediction of a single outcome. Ratings update after every played match. More on the method: methodology page and the full FAQ.

    See all frequently asked questions →