What does Barcelona need to go through in the Champions League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 3, Barcelona are 8th with 6 points. Next match: 3 November, at home against Aston Villa. In our simulations Barcelona go through almost every time, so the real question is the top 8, which they reach in 71% of cases. 16 points usually secure a top-8 place. The biggest matches are against Aston Villa (matchday 4) and Manchester City (matchday 6): each result moves their top-8 chances by about 42 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 4th, average 7.
Barcelona matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 18:45Win 77%, draw 15%, defeat 8%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00Win 59%, draw 23%, defeat 18%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00Win 23%, draw 24%, defeat 53%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00Win 59%, draw 23%, defeat 19%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
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Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 18:45Win 86%, draw 10%, defeat 4%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw99%If they lose98%
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Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00Win 49%, draw 25%, defeat 26%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
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Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00Win 51%, draw 25%, defeat 24%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
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Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00Win 69%, draw 19%, defeat 12%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Barcelona collect in the league phase.
Where could Barcelona finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Champions League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Paris Saint-Germain9100%
- 2Aston Villa9100%
- 3Liverpool9100%
- 4Real Madrid9100%
- 5Real Betis999%
- 6Stuttgart797%
- 7Arsenal7100%
- 8Barcelona6>99%
- 9Como691%
- 10Manchester City699%
- 11Club Brugge687%
- 12Sporting CP690%
- 13Borussia Dortmund695%
- 14Bayern München5>99%
- 15Roma477%
- 16Atlético de Madrid496%
- 17Shakhtar Donetsk462%
- 18PSV Eindhoven477%
- 19Villarreal382%
- 20Inter389%
- 21Manchester United360%
- 22Napoli389%
- 23Galatasaray355%
- 24LASK331%
- 25Sabah34%
- 26Feyenoord357%
- 27Lens338%
- 28Bodø/Glimt359%
- 29AEK Athens319%
- 30Leipzig364%
- 31Fenerbahçe230%
- 32Slavia Praha14%
- 33Viking19%
- 34Porto027%
- 35Lille014%
- 36Slovan Bratislava03%
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Barcelona's chances of going through in the Champions League?
Across 30,000 simulations Barcelona go through (24th place or better) in >99% of cases and reach the top 8 in 71%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Barcelona need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.
When is Barcelona's next match?
3 November, at home against Aston Villa on matchday 4 of the Champions League.
Which match matters most for Barcelona?
The matchday 5 game away against Sabah. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 2 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Champions League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.