Knockout Math
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What does Barcelona need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Barcelona are 3rd with 3 points. Next match: 13 October, away against Galatasaray. In our simulations Barcelona go through (24th place or better) in 99% of cases and make the top 8 in 69%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain.

3rdleague position
3point from 1 match
99%chance of going through (top 24)
69%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 2nd, average 7.

Barcelona matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 18:45
    HomeFeyenoord5–1
    Win 76%, draw 16%, defeat 9%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00
    AwayGalatasaray –
    Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%
  3. Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
    AwayParis Saint-Germain –
    Win 25%, draw 25%, defeat 50%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
  4. Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
    HomeAston Villa –
    Win 61%, draw 22%, defeat 17%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 18:45
    AwaySabah –
    Win 87%, draw 10%, defeat 4%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw98%If they lose96%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00
    HomeManchester City –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
    AwaySporting CP –
    Win 52%, draw 25%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw99%If they lose98%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomeComo –
    Win 72%, draw 17%, defeat 11%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose97%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Barcelona collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
4unlikely
5unlikely
6unlikely
70%
831%
984%
10>99%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24100%
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Barcelona finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams