What does Bournemouth need to go through in the Europa League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 2, Bournemouth are 5th with 6 points. Next match: 22 October, at home against Milan. In our simulations Bournemouth go through almost every time, so the real question is the top 8, which they reach in 70% of cases. 16 points usually secure a top-8 place, and 17 make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Sparta Praha (matchday 4) and Lillestrøm (matchday 7): each result moves their top-8 chances by about 34 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 3rd, average 6.8.
Bournemouth matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 37%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00Win 65%, draw 21%, defeat 15%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00Win 35%, draw 26%, defeat 38%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
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Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45Win 42%, draw 26%, defeat 32%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
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Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45Win 40%, draw 26%, defeat 34%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
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Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00Win 64%, draw 21%, defeat 15%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw99%If they lose99%
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Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45Win 62%, draw 22%, defeat 17%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
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Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00Win 70%, draw 19%, defeat 12%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw99%If they lose98%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Bournemouth collect in the league phase.
Where could Bournemouth finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Europa League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Juventus6100%
- 2Leverkusen6>99%
- 3Benfica6100%
- 4Beşiktaş698%
- 5Bournemouth6>99%
- 6Omonia682%
- 7Ferencváros697%
- 8Lyon699%
- 9Sunderland699%
- 10Olympiacos699%
- 11Sparta Praha480%
- 12Union SG496%
- 13Rennes491%
- 14GNK Dinamo476%
- 15Crystal Palace393%
- 16Milan399%
- 17Jagiellonia359%
- 18OFI Crete352%
- 19Torreense356%
- 20AZ Alkmaar386%
- 21Salzburg384%
- 22Real Sociedad172%
- 23Lillestrøm118%
- 24Hapoel Beer-Sheva120%
- 25Levski Sofia124%
- 26Sturm Graz146%
- 27N.E.C. Nijmegen153%
- 28Anderlecht038%
- 29Celta054%
- 30Hoffenheim047%
- 31Viktoria Plzeň033%
- 32Marseille068%
- 33Celtic038%
- 34Ararat-Armenia06%
- 35Celje019%
- 36Lech Poznań019%
How the league phase works
The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Bournemouth's chances of going through in the Europa League?
Across 30,000 simulations Bournemouth go through (24th place or better) in >99% of cases and reach the top 8 in 70%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Bournemouth need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.
When is Bournemouth's next match?
22 October, at home against Milan on matchday 3 of the Europa League.
Which match matters most for Bournemouth?
The matchday 8 game at home against Hapoel Beer-Sheva. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 2 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Europa League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.