What does Bournemouth need to go through in the Europa League?

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Bournemouth are 12th with 3 points. Next match: 15 October, at home against Sturm Graz. In our simulations Bournemouth go through (24th place or better) in 97% of cases and make the top 8 in 57%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Sturm Graz (matchday 2) and Hapoel Beer-Sheva (matchday 8): each result moves the chances by about 8 percentage points.

12thleague position

3point from 1 match

97%chance of going through (top 24)

57%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 2nd, average 8.9.

Bournemouth matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00

AwayReal Sociedad2–1

Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%

Chance of going through:Played
Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00

HomeSturm Graz –

Win 61%, draw 22%, defeat 17%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw95%If they lose91%
Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00

HomeMilan –

Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw97%If they lose94%
Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45

AwaySparta Praha –

Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw97%If they lose94%
Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45

AwayCelta –

Win 35%, draw 26%, defeat 38%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw97%If they lose94%
Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00

HomeViktoria Plzeň –

Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw95%If they lose91%
Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45

AwayLillestrøm –

Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw96%If they lose91%
Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00

HomeHapoel Beer-Sheva –

Win 67%, draw 20%, defeat 14%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw95%If they lose90%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Bournemouth collect in the league phase.

0unlikely

1unlikely

2unlikely

3unlikely

4unlikely

5unlikely

60%

71%

88%

954%

1096%

11100%

12100%

13100%

14100%

15100%

16100%

17100%

18100%

19100%

20100%

21100%

22100%

23unlikely

24100%

almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Bournemouth finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

1Juventus399%
2Crystal Palace394%
3Sparta Praha383%
4Beşiktaş385%
5Union SG392%
6Ferencváros383%
7Benfica399%
8Leverkusen399%
9OFI Crete349%
10Lyon394%
11Torreense360%
12Bournemouth397%
13Olympiacos391%
14Salzburg388%
15Omonia346%
16Sunderland393%
17Rennes183%
18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
19GNK Dinamo154%
20Sturm Graz152%
21Jagiellonia041%
22Real Sociedad071%
23Anderlecht050%
24Lillestrøm015%
25AZ Alkmaar075%
26Celta064%
27Levski Sofia021%
28Celtic052%
29Hoffenheim071%
30Milan095%
31Celje040%
32Marseille082%
33Ararat-Armenia010%
34Viktoria Plzeň049%
35Lech Poznań033%
36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.