What does Lillestrøm need to go through in the Europa League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 2, Lillestrøm are 23rd with 1 point. Next match: 22 October, at home against Real Sociedad. In our simulations Lillestrøm go through (24th place or better) in 18% of cases and make the top 8 in <1%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Levski Sofia (matchday 6) and Viktoria Plzeň (matchday 4): each result moves the chances by about 28 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 35th, average 29.6.
Lillestrøm matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00Win 42%, draw 26%, defeat 32%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45Win 15%, draw 21%, defeat 64%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%Chance of going through:If they win40%If they draw17%If they lose9%
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Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45Win 32%, draw 26%, defeat 41%Chance of going through:If they win33%If they draw15%If they lose7%
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Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00Win 9%, draw 16%, defeat 75%Chance of going through:If they win45%If they draw24%If they lose13%
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Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 46%Chance of going through:If they win36%If they draw15%If they lose8%
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Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45Win 17%, draw 22%, defeat 62%Chance of going through:If they win40%If they draw19%If they lose11%
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Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00Win 14%, draw 20%, defeat 66%Chance of going through:If they win44%If they draw21%If they lose11%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Lillestrøm collect in the league phase.
Where could Lillestrøm finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Europa League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Juventus6100%
- 2Leverkusen6>99%
- 3Benfica6100%
- 4Beşiktaş698%
- 5Bournemouth6>99%
- 6Omonia682%
- 7Ferencváros697%
- 8Lyon699%
- 9Sunderland699%
- 10Olympiacos699%
- 11Sparta Praha480%
- 12Union SG496%
- 13Rennes491%
- 14GNK Dinamo476%
- 15Crystal Palace393%
- 16Milan399%
- 17Jagiellonia359%
- 18OFI Crete352%
- 19Torreense356%
- 20AZ Alkmaar386%
- 21Salzburg384%
- 22Real Sociedad172%
- 23Lillestrøm118%
- 24Hapoel Beer-Sheva120%
- 25Levski Sofia124%
- 26Sturm Graz146%
- 27N.E.C. Nijmegen153%
- 28Anderlecht038%
- 29Celta054%
- 30Hoffenheim047%
- 31Viktoria Plzeň033%
- 32Marseille068%
- 33Celtic038%
- 34Ararat-Armenia06%
- 35Celje019%
- 36Lech Poznań019%
How the league phase works
The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Lillestrøm's chances of going through in the Europa League?
Across 30,000 simulations Lillestrøm go through (24th place or better) in 18% of cases and reach the top 8 in <1%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Lillestrøm need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.
When is Lillestrøm's next match?
22 October, at home against Real Sociedad on matchday 3 of the Europa League.
Which match matters most for Lillestrøm?
The matchday 8 game away against Celta. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 32 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Europa League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.