Ajax vs Atalanta: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00
The model gives Ajax a 28% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Atalanta 47%. Ajax's chance of going through is 69% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 57%. Atalanta's top-8 chance is 90% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 79%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Ajax: top 8 | Ajax: through | Atalanta: top 8 | Atalanta: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 11% | 69% | 90% | >99% |
| Ajax win | 26% | 90% | 79% | 99% |
| Draw | 8% | 70% | 89% | >99% |
| Atalanta win | 4% | 57% | 97% | 100% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Ajax
- MD1LHajduk Split A1–2
- MD2Atalanta H this match22 October
- MD3Midtjylland A5 November
- MD4Thun H26 November
- MD5Sint-Truidense A10 December
- MD6Getafe H17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Ajax vs Atalanta?
The model gives Ajax a 28% chance of winning and Atalanta 47%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Atalanta?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ajax and 1.5 for Atalanta, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.
What does this match mean for Ajax?
Ajax's qualification chance is 69% right now. A win would make it 90%, a draw 70% and a defeat 57%.
What does this match mean for Atalanta?
Atalanta's top-8 chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 89% and a defeat 79%.
When is Ajax vs Atalanta played?
Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 2).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 2 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Panathinaikos
- Iberia Tbilisi – Mjällby
- Nordsjælland – CSKA Sofia
- Crvena Zvezda – Copenhagen
- Jablonec – Brighton
- Kauno Žalgiris – Brann
- Getafe – Lugano
- Inter Escaldes – Universitatea Craiova
- Pafos – Riga FC
- Trabzonspor – Hearts
- Aarhus – Egnatia
- Monaco – Freiburg
- Midtjylland – Sint-Truidense
- Thun – Hajduk Split
- Borac – KuPS Kuopio
- Lincoln Red Imps – Twente
- Braga – Gent