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Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Beşiktaş4th, 6 pts
–Matchday 3
Crystal Palace15th, 3 pts
39%Beşiktaş win
26%Draw
34%Crystal Palace win

The model gives Beşiktaş a 39% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Crystal Palace 34%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. Crystal Palace's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 87%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBeşiktaş: top 8Beşiktaş: throughCrystal Palace: top 8Crystal Palace: through
Now46%98%27%93%
Beşiktaş win66%>99%13%87%
Draw40%98%23%93%
Crystal Palace win27%96%46%98%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.2Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
29%Beşiktaş clean sheet
26%Crystal Palace clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Beşiktaş

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WMarseille H4–1
  2. MD2WHoffenheim A3–2
  3. MD3Crystal Palace H this match22 October
  4. MD4Celtic A5 November
  5. MD5Hapoel Beer-Sheva H26 November
  6. MD6Leverkusen A10 December
  7. MD7Union SG H21 January
  8. MD8Omonia A28 January

Crystal Palace

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WLech Poznań H4–0
  2. MD2LLyon A2–3
  3. MD3Beşiktaş A this match22 October
  4. MD4Hoffenheim H5 November
  5. MD5Real Sociedad H26 November
  6. MD6Jagiellonia A10 December
  7. MD7Sparta Praha H21 January
  8. MD8Salzburg A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace?

The model gives Beşiktaş a 39% chance of winning and Crystal Palace 34%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Beşiktaş and 1.2 for Crystal Palace, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Beşiktaş?

Beşiktaş's qualification chance is 98% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 96%.

What does this match mean for Crystal Palace?

Crystal Palace's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 93% and a defeat 87%.

When is Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →