What does Borussia Dortmund need to go through in the Champions League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 3, Borussia Dortmund are 13th with 6 points. Next match: 4 November, at home against Real Betis. In our simulations Borussia Dortmund go through (24th place or better) in 95% of cases and make the top 8 in 18%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 8 game at home against AEK Athens: winning or losing it moves the chances by 20 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 14th, average 14.3.
Borussia Dortmund matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Tuesday 8 September, 21:00Win 49%, draw 25%, defeat 26%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 18:45Win 71%, draw 18%, defeat 11%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00Win 51%, draw 25%, defeat 25%Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw94%If they lose86%
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Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00Win 14%, draw 20%, defeat 66%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw97%If they lose93%
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Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00Win 35%, draw 26%, defeat 39%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw95%If they lose90%
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Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 49%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw96%If they lose91%
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Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00Win 69%, draw 19%, defeat 12%Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw89%If they lose79%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Borussia Dortmund collect in the league phase.
Where could Borussia Dortmund finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Champions League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Paris Saint-Germain9100%
- 2Aston Villa9100%
- 3Liverpool9100%
- 4Real Madrid9100%
- 5Real Betis999%
- 6Stuttgart797%
- 7Arsenal7100%
- 8Barcelona6>99%
- 9Como691%
- 10Manchester City699%
- 11Club Brugge687%
- 12Sporting CP690%
- 13Borussia Dortmund695%
- 14Bayern München5>99%
- 15Roma477%
- 16Atlético de Madrid496%
- 17Shakhtar Donetsk462%
- 18PSV Eindhoven477%
- 19Villarreal382%
- 20Inter389%
- 21Manchester United360%
- 22Napoli389%
- 23Galatasaray355%
- 24LASK331%
- 25Sabah34%
- 26Feyenoord357%
- 27Lens338%
- 28Bodø/Glimt359%
- 29AEK Athens319%
- 30Leipzig364%
- 31Fenerbahçe230%
- 32Slavia Praha14%
- 33Viking19%
- 34Porto027%
- 35Lille014%
- 36Slovan Bratislava03%
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Borussia Dortmund's chances of going through in the Champions League?
Across 30,000 simulations Borussia Dortmund go through (24th place or better) in 95% of cases and reach the top 8 in 18%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Borussia Dortmund need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.
When is Borussia Dortmund's next match?
4 November, at home against Real Betis on matchday 4 of the Champions League.
Which match matters most for Borussia Dortmund?
The matchday 8 game at home against AEK Athens. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 20 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Champions League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.