Knockout Math
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What does Sporting CP need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Sporting CP are 6th with 3 points. Next match: 13 October, away against Lens. In our simulations Sporting CP go through (24th place or better) in 89% of cases and make the top 8 in 21%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 4 game away against Shakhtar Donetsk: winning or losing it moves the chances by 19 percentage points.

6thleague position
3point from 1 match
89%chance of going through (top 24)
21%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 13th, average 14.9.

Sporting CP matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 21:00
    HomeGalatasaray3–1
    Win 50%, draw 25%, defeat 25%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 18:45
    AwayLens –
    Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 37%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw89%If they lose82%
  3. Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
    HomeLASK –
    Win 72%, draw 17%, defeat 11%
    Chance of going through:If they win94%If they draw81%If they lose70%
  4. Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 18:45
    AwayShakhtar Donetsk –
    Win 46%, draw 26%, defeat 28%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw87%If they lose78%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
    HomeManchester United –
    Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw89%If they lose80%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00
    AwayRoma –
    Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw91%If they lose82%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
    HomeBarcelona –
    Win 23%, draw 25%, defeat 52%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw91%If they lose85%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    AwayManchester City –
    Win 16%, draw 21%, defeat 63%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw92%If they lose86%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Sporting CP collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
40%
50%
60%
72%
821%
974%
1098%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Sporting CP finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams