What does Aston Villa need to go through in the Champions League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 3, Aston Villa are 2nd with 9 points. Next match: 3 November, away against Barcelona. In our simulations Aston Villa go through almost every time, so the real question is the top 8, which they reach in 62% of cases. 16 points usually secure a top-8 place, and 17 make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 7 game at home against Borussia Dortmund: winning or losing it moves their top-8 chances by 44 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 6th, average 7.8.
Aston Villa matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Tuesday 8 September, 18:45Win 43%, draw 26%, defeat 31%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00Win 63%, draw 21%, defeat 15%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00Win 80%, draw 13%, defeat 6%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00Win 19%, draw 23%, defeat 59%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose>99%
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Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 18:45Win 44%, draw 26%, defeat 30%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose>99%
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Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00Win 23%, draw 25%, defeat 52%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose>99%
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Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00Win 49%, draw 25%, defeat 26%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose>99%
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Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00Win 59%, draw 23%, defeat 18%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose>99%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Aston Villa collect in the league phase.
Where could Aston Villa finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Champions League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Paris Saint-Germain9100%
- 2Aston Villa9100%
- 3Liverpool9100%
- 4Real Madrid9100%
- 5Real Betis999%
- 6Stuttgart797%
- 7Arsenal7100%
- 8Barcelona6>99%
- 9Como691%
- 10Manchester City699%
- 11Club Brugge687%
- 12Sporting CP690%
- 13Borussia Dortmund695%
- 14Bayern München5>99%
- 15Roma477%
- 16Atlético de Madrid496%
- 17Shakhtar Donetsk462%
- 18PSV Eindhoven477%
- 19Villarreal382%
- 20Inter389%
- 21Manchester United360%
- 22Napoli389%
- 23Galatasaray355%
- 24LASK331%
- 25Sabah34%
- 26Feyenoord357%
- 27Lens338%
- 28Bodø/Glimt359%
- 29AEK Athens319%
- 30Leipzig364%
- 31Fenerbahçe230%
- 32Slavia Praha14%
- 33Viking19%
- 34Porto027%
- 35Lille014%
- 36Slovan Bratislava03%
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Aston Villa's chances of going through in the Champions League?
Across 30,000 simulations Aston Villa go through (24th place or better) in 100% of cases and reach the top 8 in 62%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Aston Villa need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.
When is Aston Villa's next match?
3 November, away against Barcelona on matchday 4 of the Champions League.
Which match matters most for Aston Villa?
The matchday 8 game away against Slavia Praha. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 0 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Champions League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.