What does Aston Villa need to go through in the Champions League?

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Aston Villa are 11th with 3 points. Next match: 14 October, at home against Fenerbahçe. In our simulations Aston Villa go through (24th place or better) in 95% of cases and make the top 8 in 34%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Fenerbahçe (matchday 2) and Slavia Praha (matchday 8): each result moves the chances by about 12 percentage points.

11thleague position

3point from 1 match

95%chance of going through (top 24)

34%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 9th, average 12.1.

Aston Villa matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

Matchday 1Tuesday 8 September, 18:45

AwayClub Brugge3–2

Win 42%, draw 26%, defeat 32%

Chance of going through:Played
Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00

HomeFenerbahçe –

Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw93%If they lose87%
Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00

HomeViking –

Win 77%, draw 15%, defeat 8%

Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw89%If they lose83%
Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00

AwayBarcelona –

Win 17%, draw 22%, defeat 61%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw97%If they lose93%
Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 18:45

AwayGalatasaray –

Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw95%If they lose90%
Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

HomeParis Saint-Germain –

Win 23%, draw 25%, defeat 52%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw96%If they lose93%
Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00

HomeBorussia Dortmund –

Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw95%If they lose89%
Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

AwaySlavia Praha –

Win 52%, draw 25%, defeat 23%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw93%If they lose88%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Aston Villa collect in the league phase.

0unlikely

1unlikely

2unlikely

3unlikely

4unlikely

50%

60%

71%

818%

970%

1098%

11100%

12100%

13100%

14100%

15100%

16100%

17100%

18100%

19100%

20100%

21100%

22100%

23unlikely

24100%

almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Aston Villa finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

1Paris Saint-Germain399%
2Bayern München3>99%
3Barcelona399%
4Manchester United386%
5Como378%
6Sporting CP389%
7Stuttgart388%
8Manchester City398%
9Real Betis382%
10Lens376%
11Aston Villa395%
12Borussia Dortmund395%
13Real Madrid3>99%
14Liverpool3>99%
15Arsenal3>99%
16AEK Athens342%
17Roma173%
18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
19Fenerbahçe159%
20PSV Eindhoven166%
21Villarreal063%
22Slavia Praha021%
23Club Brugge036%
24Lille047%
25Atlético de Madrid089%
26Inter095%
27LASK011%
28Napoli090%
29Galatasaray044%
30Viking010%
31Porto066%
32Leipzig057%
33Feyenoord047%
34Sabah02%
35Slovan Bratislava011%
36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.