Conference League qualification chances 2026/27 | Top 8 & top 24
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
18 of 108 league-phase matches have been played. The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Atalanta (90%), Copenhagen (69%) and Brighton (66%). The tightest calls are Pafos, Riga FC and Egnatia, whose chances of going through are close to 50%. In the simulations, 12 points usually secure the top 8 and 7 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.
Table and chances
The current table with every team's chances from the simulations. Click a team to see its fixtures and scenarios.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Top 8 | Through | Out | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 1 | +4 | 3 | 66% | 98% | 2% | |
| 2 | Copenhagen | 1 | +3 | 3 | 69% | 99% | 1% | |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 1 | +2 | 3 | 41% | 93% | 7% | |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | +2 | 3 | 90% | >99% | <1% | |
| 5 | Sint-Truidense | 1 | +2 | 3 | 19% | 80% | 20% | |
| 6 | Mjällby | 1 | +2 | 3 | 27% | 88% | 12% | |
| 7 | Freiburg | 1 | +1 | 3 | 56% | 97% | 3% | |
| 8 | Lugano | 1 | +1 | 3 | 23% | 86% | 14% | |
| 9 | Monaco | 1 | +1 | 3 | 65% | 99% | 1% | |
| 10 | Panathinaikos | 1 | +1 | 3 | 23% | 85% | 15% | |
| 11 | Brann | 1 | +1 | 3 | 22% | 83% | 18% | |
| 12 | Hajduk Split | 1 | +1 | 3 | 34% | 91% | 9% | |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | +1 | 3 | 48% | 95% | 5% | |
| 14 | Gent | 1 | +1 | 3 | 41% | 93% | 7% | |
| 15 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2% | 41% | 59% | |
| 16 | Nordsjælland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11% | 72% | 28% | |
| 17 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 31% | 91% | 9% | |
| 18 | Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 32% | 90% | 10% | |
| 19 | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9% | 68% | 32% | |
| 20 | Hearts | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8% | 63% | 37% | |
| 21 | Riga FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3% | 48% | 52% | |
| 22 | Egnatia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3% | 46% | 54% | |
| 23 | Jablonec | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | 44% | 56% | |
| 24 | Crvena Zvezda | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15% | 78% | 22% | |
| 25 | Lincoln Red Imps | 1 | -1 | 0 | <1% | 7% | 93% | |
| 26 | Ajax | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11% | 69% | 31% | |
| 27 | Borac | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1% | 27% | 73% | |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | 43% | 57% | |
| 29 | Thun | 1 | -1 | 0 | 2% | 38% | 62% | |
| 30 | Aarhus | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12% | 72% | 28% | |
| 31 | KuPS Kuopio | 1 | -2 | 0 | 1% | 31% | 69% | |
| 32 | Pafos | 1 | -2 | 0 | 5% | 50% | 50% | |
| 33 | Iberia Tbilisi | 1 | -2 | 0 | <1% | 16% | 84% | |
| 34 | Inter Escaldes | 1 | -2 | 0 | <1% | 6% | 94% | |
| 35 | Braga | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20% | 82% | 18% | |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1 | -4 | 0 | 2% | 32% | 68% |
Matchday 2 fixtures
Model chances for each match: home win, draw, away win. Times in your time zone.
- Thu 22 Oct, 16:30 Kairat Almaty – Panathinaikos 30% · 26% · 44%
- Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Crvena Zvezda – Copenhagen 38% · 26% · 36%
- Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Getafe – Lugano 57% · 23% · 20%
- Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Iberia Tbilisi – Mjällby 29% · 26% · 45%
- Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Inter Escaldes – Universitatea Craiova 23% · 24% · 53%
- Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Jablonec – Brighton 17% · 22% · 62%
- Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Kauno Žalgiris – Brann 32% · 26% · 42%
- Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Nordsjælland – CSKA Sofia 52% · 25% · 23%
- Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Pafos – Riga FC 52% · 25% · 23%
- Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Trabzonspor – Hearts 53% · 24% · 23%
- Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Aarhus – Egnatia 63% · 21% · 16%
- Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Ajax – Atalanta 28% · 26% · 47%
- Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Borac – KuPS Kuopio 39% · 26% · 34%
- Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Braga – Gent 47% · 26% · 28%
- Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Lincoln Red Imps – Twente 13% · 20% · 67%
- Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Midtjylland – Sint-Truidense 54% · 24% · 22%
- Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Monaco – Freiburg 44% · 26% · 30%
- Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Thun – Hajduk Split 36% · 26% · 37%
Full matchday 2: what every team needs →
Matchdays
Every matchday has its own page: fixtures, probabilities and who has the most at stake.
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
- UELJuventus – RennesThu 22 Oct, 18:45
- UELBournemouth – MilanThu 22 Oct, 21:00
- UECLMonaco – FreiburgThu 22 Oct, 21:00
- UECLAjax – AtalantaThu 22 Oct, 21:00
- UELBeşiktaş – Crystal PalaceThu 22 Oct, 21:00
- UELHoffenheim – LyonThu 22 Oct, 21:00
- UELOlympiacos – Sparta PrahaThu 22 Oct, 21:00
- UELCeltic – CeltaThu 22 Oct, 21:00
How many points are needed?
How often a team finishing on each points total ends in the top 8 or at least 24th across the simulations.
How the league phase works
The Conference League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 6 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
How many points are needed for the top 8 in the Conference League?
In the simulations 12 points are usually enough. For 24th place or better, which means a knockout play-off spot, 7 points are usually enough.
Which teams are favourites in the Conference League?
The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Atalanta (90%), Copenhagen (69%), Brighton (66%).
Which teams are on a knife edge?
Closest to a 50% chance of going through are Pafos, Riga FC, Egnatia. For these teams a single result can decide everything.
How does the Conference League league phase work?
36 teams play in a single table, each playing 6 matches against different opponents. The top eight go straight to the round of 16, 9th to 24th play a knockout play-off, and 25th to 36th are eliminated.
When does the league phase finish and what comes next?
The final matchday is on 17 December, when all matches kick off at the same time. The knockout play-offs are on 18 and 25 February 2027, the round of 16 on 11 and 18 March 2027, and the final is on 2 June 2027 in Istanbul (Beşiktaş Stadium).
How does the Conference League differ from the other two competitions?
All three work the same way: 36 teams in one table, the top 8 go straight to the round of 16, 9th to 24th play a knockout play-off and 25th to 36th are eliminated. The difference is the number of matches: 8 each in the Champions League and Europa League, but 6 in the Conference League, which is why its points threshold is lower.
Are these numbers a prediction?
No. They are probabilities from 30,000 simulations based on team strength ratings and results so far. They show what is more likely, not what will certainly happen, and they are recalculated after every matchday.
All team pages
- Aarhus
- Ajax
- Atalanta
- Borac
- Braga
- Brann
- Brighton
- Copenhagen
- Crvena Zvezda
- CSKA Sofia
- Egnatia
- Freiburg
- Gent
- Getafe
- Hajduk Split
- Hearts
- Iberia Tbilisi
- Inter Escaldes
- Jablonec
- Kairat Almaty
- Kauno Žalgiris
- KuPS Kuopio
- Lincoln Red Imps
- Lugano
- Midtjylland
- Mjällby
- Monaco
- Nordsjælland
- Pafos
- Panathinaikos
- Riga FC
- Sint-Truidense
- Thun
- Trabzonspor
- Twente
- Universitatea Craiova