What does Milan need to go through in the Europa League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 2, Milan are 16th with 3 points. Next match: 22 October, away against Bournemouth. In our simulations Milan go through (24th place or better) in 99% of cases and make the top 8 in 55%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations).
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 6th, average 8.8.
Milan matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45Win 50%, draw 25%, defeat 25%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 35%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%
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Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45Win 66%, draw 20%, defeat 14%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw98%If they lose96%
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Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 32%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%
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Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00Win 62%, draw 22%, defeat 16%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw98%If they lose97%
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Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00Win 68%, draw 19%, defeat 13%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw98%If they lose96%
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Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00Win 88%, draw 8%, defeat 3%Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw97%If they lose93%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Milan collect in the league phase.
Where could Milan finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Europa League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Juventus6100%
- 2Leverkusen6>99%
- 3Benfica6100%
- 4Beşiktaş698%
- 5Bournemouth6>99%
- 6Omonia682%
- 7Ferencváros697%
- 8Lyon699%
- 9Sunderland699%
- 10Olympiacos699%
- 11Sparta Praha480%
- 12Union SG496%
- 13Rennes491%
- 14GNK Dinamo476%
- 15Crystal Palace393%
- 16Milan399%
- 17Jagiellonia359%
- 18OFI Crete352%
- 19Torreense356%
- 20AZ Alkmaar386%
- 21Salzburg384%
- 22Real Sociedad172%
- 23Lillestrøm118%
- 24Hapoel Beer-Sheva120%
- 25Levski Sofia124%
- 26Sturm Graz146%
- 27N.E.C. Nijmegen153%
- 28Anderlecht038%
- 29Celta054%
- 30Hoffenheim047%
- 31Viktoria Plzeň033%
- 32Marseille068%
- 33Celtic038%
- 34Ararat-Armenia06%
- 35Celje019%
- 36Lech Poznań019%
How the league phase works
The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Milan's chances of going through in the Europa League?
Across 30,000 simulations Milan go through (24th place or better) in 99% of cases and reach the top 8 in 55%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Milan need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations.
When is Milan's next match?
22 October, away against Bournemouth on matchday 3 of the Europa League.
Which match matters most for Milan?
The matchday 8 game at home against Ararat-Armenia. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 6 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Europa League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.