Knockout Math
Live
EN

Bournemouth vs Milan: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Bournemouth5th, 6 pts
–Matchday 3
Milan16th, 3 pts
35%Bournemouth win
26%Draw
38%Milan win

The model gives Bournemouth a 35% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Milan 38%. Bournemouth's top-8 chance is 70% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 55%. Milan's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBournemouth: top 8Bournemouth: throughMilan: top 8Milan: through
Now70%>99%55%99%
Bournemouth win88%100%35%98%
Draw70%>99%50%99%
Milan win55%99%76%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
27%Bournemouth clean sheet
28%Milan clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Bournemouth

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WReal Sociedad A2–1
  2. MD2WSturm Graz H3–0
  3. MD3Milan H this match22 October
  4. MD4Sparta Praha A5 November
  5. MD5Celta A26 November
  6. MD6Viktoria Plzeň H10 December
  7. MD7Lillestrøm A21 January
  8. MD8Hapoel Beer-Sheva H28 January

Milan

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1LBenfica H0–2
  2. MD2WSalzburg A4–0
  3. MD3Bournemouth A this match22 October
  4. MD4Ferencváros H5 November
  5. MD5Olympiacos A26 November
  6. MD6Sunderland H10 December
  7. MD7Levski Sofia A21 January
  8. MD8Ararat-Armenia H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Bournemouth vs Milan?

The model gives Bournemouth a 35% chance of winning and Milan 38%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Milan?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bournemouth and 1.3 for Milan, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Bournemouth?

Bournemouth's top-8 chance is 70% right now. A win would make it 88%, a draw 70% and a defeat 55%.

What does this match mean for Milan?

Milan's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

When is Bournemouth vs Milan played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →