What does Benfica need to go through in the Europa League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 2, Benfica are 3rd with 6 points. Next match: 22 October, away against Omonia. In our simulations Benfica go through almost every time, so the real question is the top 8, which they reach in 91% of cases. 15 points usually secure a top-8 place, and 16 make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against AZ Alkmaar (matchday 8) and Viktoria Plzeň (matchday 5): each result moves their top-8 chances by about 19 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 1st, average 3.8.
Benfica matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00Win 29%, draw 26%, defeat 45%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00Win 68%, draw 19%, defeat 13%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00Win 61%, draw 22%, defeat 17%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose>99%
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Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00Win 76%, draw 16%, defeat 9%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose>99%
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Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45Win 57%, draw 23%, defeat 20%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose>99%
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Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00Win 78%, draw 14%, defeat 8%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose>99%
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Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45Win 56%, draw 23%, defeat 20%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose>99%
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Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00Win 61%, draw 22%, defeat 17%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose>99%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Benfica collect in the league phase.
Where could Benfica finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Europa League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Juventus6100%
- 2Leverkusen6>99%
- 3Benfica6100%
- 4Beşiktaş698%
- 5Bournemouth6>99%
- 6Omonia682%
- 7Ferencváros697%
- 8Lyon699%
- 9Sunderland699%
- 10Olympiacos699%
- 11Sparta Praha480%
- 12Union SG496%
- 13Rennes491%
- 14GNK Dinamo476%
- 15Crystal Palace393%
- 16Milan399%
- 17Jagiellonia359%
- 18OFI Crete352%
- 19Torreense356%
- 20AZ Alkmaar386%
- 21Salzburg384%
- 22Real Sociedad172%
- 23Lillestrøm118%
- 24Hapoel Beer-Sheva120%
- 25Levski Sofia124%
- 26Sturm Graz146%
- 27N.E.C. Nijmegen153%
- 28Anderlecht038%
- 29Celta054%
- 30Hoffenheim047%
- 31Viktoria Plzeň033%
- 32Marseille068%
- 33Celtic038%
- 34Ararat-Armenia06%
- 35Celje019%
- 36Lech Poznań019%
How the league phase works
The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Benfica's chances of going through in the Europa League?
Across 30,000 simulations Benfica go through (24th place or better) in 100% of cases and reach the top 8 in 91%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Benfica need to qualify?
10 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations.
When is Benfica's next match?
22 October, away against Omonia on matchday 3 of the Europa League.
Which match matters most for Benfica?
The matchday 4 game at home against Lech Poznań. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 0 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Europa League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.