Knockout Math
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What does Union SG need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Union SG are 5th with 3 points. Next match: 15 October, at home against Real Sociedad. In our simulations Union SG go through (24th place or better) in 92% of cases and make the top 8 in 40%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Lech Poznań (matchday 5) and Hapoel Beer-Sheva (matchday 3): each result moves the chances by about 17 percentage points.

5thleague position
3point from 1 match
92%chance of going through (top 24)
40%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 5th, average 11.9.

Union SG matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    AwayViktoria Plzeň3–0
    Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 36%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45
    HomeReal Sociedad –
    Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw91%If they lose86%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45
    HomeHapoel Beer-Sheva –
    Win 61%, draw 22%, defeat 17%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw88%If they lose80%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00
    AwayCelta –
    Win 30%, draw 26%, defeat 44%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw93%If they lose87%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45
    HomeLech Poznań –
    Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw89%If they lose80%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00
    AwayLyon –
    Win 25%, draw 25%, defeat 50%
    Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw94%If they lose88%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45
    AwayBeşiktaş –
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw93%If they lose87%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    HomeCeltic –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw90%If they lose83%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Union SG collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
40%
50%
60%
71%
813%
964%
1098%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24100%
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Union SG finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille082%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams