What does Pafos need to go through in the Conference League?

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

Pafos will play 6 league-phase matches, 3 at home and 3 away. First match: 15 October, away against Atalanta. In our simulations Pafos go through (24th place or better) in 55% of cases and make the top 8 in 8%. 7 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 8 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Hearts (matchday 6) and Riga (matchday 2): each result moves the chances by about 41 percentage points.

–league position (not started yet)

0points from 0 matches

55%chance of going through (top 24)

8%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 26th, average 22.1.

Pafos matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

Matchday 1Thursday 15 October, 21:00

AwayAtalanta –

Win 8%, draw 15%, defeat 77%

Chance of going through:If they win84%If they draw65%If they lose51%
Matchday 2Thursday 22 October, 18:45

HomeRiga –

Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%

Chance of going through:If they win71%If they draw45%If they lose31%
Matchday 3Thursday 5 November, 21:00

AwayTwente –

Win 22%, draw 24%, defeat 54%

Chance of going through:If they win82%If they draw59%If they lose43%
Matchday 4Thursday 26 November, 18:45

HomeMidtjylland –

Win 32%, draw 26%, defeat 42%

Chance of going through:If they win78%If they draw54%If they lose39%
Matchday 5Thursday 10 December, 21:00

AwayMjällby –

Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%

Chance of going through:If they win79%If they draw55%If they lose38%
Matchday 6Thursday 17 December, 21:00

HomeHearts –

Win 43%, draw 26%, defeat 31%

Chance of going through:If they win75%If they draw49%If they lose34%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Pafos collect in the league phase.

00%

10%

20%

30%

40%

5<1%

616%

774%

8>99%

9100%

10100%

11100%

12100%

13100%

14100%

15100%

16100%

17unlikely

18unlikely

almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Pafos finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Projected Conference League table

The league phase has not started yet, so teams are ordered by their average projected position. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

How the league phase works

The Conference League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 6 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.