Knockout Math
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What does Omonia need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Omonia are 15th with 3 points. Next match: 15 October, away against Celje. In our simulations Omonia go through (24th place or better) in 46% of cases and make the top 8 in 4%. 10 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 11 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Celtic (matchday 6) and Celje (matchday 2): each result moves the chances by about 41 percentage points.

15thleague position
3point from 1 match
46%chance of going through (top 24)
4%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 31st, average 24.3.

Omonia matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00
    HomeCelta1–0
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 49%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45
    AwayCelje –
    Win 30%, draw 26%, defeat 44%
    Chance of going through:If they win70%If they draw45%If they lose30%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    HomeBenfica –
    Win 16%, draw 22%, defeat 62%
    Chance of going through:If they win74%If they draw50%If they lose37%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45
    AwayN.E.C. Nijmegen –
    Win 22%, draw 24%, defeat 54%
    Chance of going through:If they win73%If they draw47%If they lose34%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    AwayJuventus –
    Win 7%, draw 13%, defeat 80%
    Chance of going through:If they win80%If they draw53%If they lose42%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45
    HomeCeltic –
    Win 29%, draw 26%, defeat 45%
    Chance of going through:If they win71%If they draw44%If they lose30%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00
    AwayRennes –
    Win 15%, draw 21%, defeat 64%
    Chance of going through:If they win76%If they draw52%If they lose37%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    HomeBeşiktaş –
    Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 46%
    Chance of going through:If they win70%If they draw45%If they lose31%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Omonia collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
84%
940%
1088%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Omonia finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille082%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams