Knockout Math
Latviski

What does Viking need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Viking are 30th with 0 points. Next match: 13 October, at home against Bayern München. In our simulations Viking go through (24th place or better) in 10% of cases and make the top 8 in <1%. 10 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations). The biggest matches are against Feyenoord (matchday 6) and PSV Eindhoven (matchday 7): each result moves the chances by about 20 percentage points.

30thleague position
0point from 1 match
10%chance of going through (top 24)
<1%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 35th, average 31.1.

Viking matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 18:45
    AwayStuttgart1–3
    Win 12%, draw 19%, defeat 69%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00
    HomeBayern München –
    Win 6%, draw 12%, defeat 82%
    Chance of going through:If they win33%If they draw13%If they lose8%
  3. Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
    AwayAston Villa –
    Win 8%, draw 15%, defeat 77%
    Chance of going through:If they win32%If they draw12%If they lose7%
  4. Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
    HomeSabah –
    Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%
    Chance of going through:If they win15%If they draw4%If they lose2%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
    AwayAtlético de Madrid –
    Win 6%, draw 13%, defeat 81%
    Chance of going through:If they win35%If they draw13%If they lose7%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 18:45
    HomeFeyenoord –
    Win 27%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:If they win23%If they draw8%If they lose3%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
    HomePSV Eindhoven –
    Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%
    Chance of going through:If they win26%If they draw8%If they lose4%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    AwayNapoli –
    Win 8%, draw 14%, defeat 78%
    Chance of going through:If they win33%If they draw13%If they lose7%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Viking collect in the league phase.

00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
89%
948%
1092%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14unlikely
15unlikely
16unlikely
17unlikely
18unlikely
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Viking finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams