Knockout Math
Live
EN

What does AZ Alkmaar need to go through in the Europa League?

← Back to the Europa League table

Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 2, AZ Alkmaar are 20th with 3 points. Next match: 22 October, away against Ararat-Armenia. In our simulations AZ Alkmaar go through (24th place or better) in 86% of cases and make the top 8 in 13%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Sturm Graz (matchday 6) and Ararat-Armenia (matchday 3): each result moves the chances by about 26 percentage points.

20thleague position
3points from 2 matches
86%chance of going through (top 24)
13%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 14th, average 16.5.

AZ Alkmaar matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00
    AwaySunderland0–1
    Win 30%, draw 26%, defeat 44%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45
    Win 61%, draw 22%, defeat 17%
    Chance of going through:Played
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45
    Win 63%, draw 21%, defeat 16%
    Chance of going through:If they win93%If they draw78%If they lose65%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00
    HomeJuventus –
    Win 25%, draw 25%, defeat 50%
    Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw87%If they lose79%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    AwaySparta Praha –
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 40%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw86%If they lose76%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45
    HomeSturm Graz –
    Win 56%, draw 23%, defeat 20%
    Chance of going through:If they win94%If they draw80%If they lose68%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00
    HomeGNK Dinamo –
    Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw82%If they lose69%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwayBenfica –
    Win 17%, draw 22%, defeat 61%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw89%If they lose81%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points AZ Alkmaar collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
40%
50%
60%
71%
823%
975%
1099%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21100%
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could AZ Alkmaar finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus6100%
  2. 2Leverkusen6>99%
  3. 3Benfica6100%
  4. 4Beşiktaş698%
  5. 5Bournemouth6>99%
  6. 6Omonia682%
  7. 7Ferencváros697%
  8. 8Lyon699%
  9. 9Sunderland699%
  10. 10Olympiacos699%
  11. 11Sparta Praha480%
  12. 12Union SG496%
  13. 13Rennes491%
  14. 14GNK Dinamo476%
  15. 15Crystal Palace393%
  16. 16Milan399%
  17. 17Jagiellonia359%
  18. 18OFI Crete352%
  19. 19Torreense356%
  20. 20AZ Alkmaar386%
  21. 21Salzburg384%
  22. 22Real Sociedad172%
  23. 23Lillestrøm118%
  24. 24Hapoel Beer-Sheva120%
  25. 25Levski Sofia124%
  26. 26Sturm Graz146%
  27. 27N.E.C. Nijmegen153%
  28. 28Anderlecht038%
  29. 29Celta054%
  30. 30Hoffenheim047%
  31. 31Viktoria Plzeň033%
  32. 32Marseille068%
  33. 33Celtic038%
  34. 34Ararat-Armenia06%
  35. 35Celje019%
  36. 36Lech Poznań019%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Frequently asked questions

What are AZ Alkmaar's chances of going through in the Europa League?

Across 30,000 simulations AZ Alkmaar go through (24th place or better) in 86% of cases and reach the top 8 in 13%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.

How many points do AZ Alkmaar need to qualify?

9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.

When is AZ Alkmaar's next match?

22 October, away against Ararat-Armenia on matchday 3 of the Europa League.

Which match matters most for AZ Alkmaar?

The matchday 3 game away against Ararat-Armenia. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 28 percentage points.

What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Europa League?

They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.