Knockout Math
Latviski

What does Aarhus need to go through in the Conference League?

← Back to the Conference League table

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

Aarhus will play 6 league-phase matches, 3 at home and 3 away. First match: 15 October, away against Gent. In our simulations Aarhus go through (24th place or better) in 79% of cases and make the top 8 in 24%. 7 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 8 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Inter Escaldes (matchday 6) and Egnatia (matchday 2): each result moves the chances by about 32 percentage points.

–league position (not started yet)
0points from 0 matches
79%chance of going through (top 24)
24%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 9th, average 16.3.

Aarhus matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 15 October, 18:45
    AwayGent –
    Win 25%, draw 25%, defeat 50%
    Chance of going through:If they win94%If they draw82%If they lose70%
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    HomeEgnatia –
    Win 64%, draw 21%, defeat 15%
    Chance of going through:If they win88%If they draw69%If they lose54%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 5 November, 18:45
    HomeBraga –
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%
    Chance of going through:If they win94%If they draw79%If they lose67%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 26 November, 18:45
    AwayBrann –
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%
    Chance of going through:If they win93%If they draw80%If they lose67%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 10 December, 21:00
    HomeTwente –
    Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 35%
    Chance of going through:If they win93%If they draw78%If they lose65%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 17 December, 21:00
    AwayInter Escaldes –
    Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%
    Chance of going through:If they win89%If they draw71%If they lose58%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Aarhus collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
10%
20%
30%
40%
51%
621%
784%
8>99%
9100%
10100%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17unlikely
18100%
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Aarhus finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Projected Conference League table

The league phase has not started yet, so teams are ordered by their average projected position. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Atalanta99%
  2. 2Brighton96%
  3. 3Monaco95%
  4. 4Freiburg94%
  5. 5Midtjylland92%
  6. 6Copenhagen91%
  7. 7Braga91%
  8. 8Getafe91%
  9. 9Twente89%
  10. 10Crvena Zvezda88%
  11. 11Ajax84%
  12. 12Gent82%
  13. 13Trabzonspor79%
  14. 14Aarhus79%
  15. 15Mjällby79%
  16. 16Brann75%
  17. 17Panathinaikos74%
  18. 18Hajduk Split71%
  19. 19Nordsjælland72%
  20. 20Hearts67%
  21. 21Sint-Truidense67%
  22. 22Universitatea Craiova66%
  23. 23Lugano65%
  24. 24Pafos55%
  25. 25CSKA Sofia53%
  26. 26Riga FC53%
  27. 27Jablonec50%
  28. 28Thun48%
  29. 29KuPS Kuopio47%
  30. 30Kairat Almaty43%
  31. 31Egnatia40%
  32. 32Kauno Žalgiris40%
  33. 33Borac35%
  34. 34Iberia Tbilisi25%
  35. 35Inter Escaldes12%
  36. 36Lincoln Red Imps11%

How the league phase works

The Conference League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 6 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Conference League teams