Celtic vs Celta: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00
The model gives Celtic a 39% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Celta 35%. Celtic's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 57%, a defeat to 22%. Celta's chance of going through is 54% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 36%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Celtic: top 8 | Celtic: through | Celta: top 8 | Celta: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 1% | 38% | 2% | 54% |
| Celtic win | 2% | 57% | <1% | 36% |
| Draw | <1% | 33% | 1% | 52% |
| Celta win | <1% | 22% | 5% | 75% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Celta
- MD1LOmonia A0–1
- MD2LJuventus H1–2
- MD3Celtic A this match22 October
- MD4Union SG H5 November
- MD5Bournemouth H26 November
- MD6Marseille A10 December
- MD7Hapoel Beer-Sheva A21 January
- MD8Lillestrøm H28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Celtic vs Celta Vigo?
The model gives Celtic a 39% chance of winning and Celta 35%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).
Will both teams score in Celtic vs Celta Vigo?
The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Celtic and 1.2 for Celta, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Celtic?
Celtic's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 57%, a draw 33% and a defeat 22%.
What does this match mean for Celta?
Celta's qualification chance is 54% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 52% and a defeat 36%.
When is Celtic vs Celta played?
Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 3).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar
- Ferencváros – Torreense
- GNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Juventus – Rennes
- Lech Poznań – Sunderland
- OFI Crete – Leverkusen
- Union SG – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Sturm Graz – Marseille
- Bournemouth – Milan
- Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace
- Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia
- Jagiellonia – Anderlecht
- Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad
- Celje – Salzburg
- Olympiacos – Sparta Praha
- Omonia – Benfica
- Hoffenheim – Lyon