Europa League qualification chances 2026/27 | Top 8 & top 24

Q: How many points are needed for the top 8 in the Europa League?

In the simulations 16 points are usually enough. For 24th place or better, which means a knockout play-off spot, 9 points are usually enough.

Open the interactive table and enter your own predictions →

Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase

36 of 144 league-phase matches have been played. The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Benfica (91%), Juventus (89%) and Leverkusen (83%). The tightest calls are OFI Crete, Hoffenheim and N.E.C. Nijmegen, whose chances of going through are close to 50%. In the simulations, 16 points usually secure the top 8 and 9 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.

Table and chances

The current table with every team's chances from the simulations. Click a team to see its fixtures and scenarios.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Top 8	Through	Out
1	Juventus	2	+6	6	89%	100%	<1%	›
2	Leverkusen	2	+6	6	83%	>99%	<1%	›
3	Benfica	2	+5	6	91%	100%	<1%	›
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6	46%	98%	2%	›
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6	70%	>99%	<1%	›
6	Omonia	2	+4	6	9%	82%	18%	›
7	Ferencváros	2	+3	6	34%	97%	3%	›
8	Lyon	2	+2	6	59%	99%	1%	›
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6	55%	99%	1%	›
10	Olympiacos	2	+2	6	57%	99%	1%	›
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4	11%	80%	20%	›
12	Union SG	2	+3	4	33%	96%	4%	›
13	Rennes	2	+1	4	21%	91%	9%	›
14	GNK Dinamo	2	+1	4	8%	76%	24%	›
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3	27%	93%	7%	›
16	Milan	2	+2	3	55%	99%	1%	›
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3	4%	59%	41%	›
18	OFI Crete	2	+1	3	2%	52%	48%	›
19	Torreense	2	0	3	3%	56%	44%	›
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3	13%	86%	14%	›
21	Salzburg	2	-3	3	12%	84%	16%	›
22	Real Sociedad	2	-1	1	5%	72%	28%	›
23	Lillestrøm	2	-1	1	<1%	18%	82%	›
24	Hapoel Beer-Sheva	2	-1	1	<1%	20%	80%	›
25	Levski Sofia	2	-1	1	<1%	24%	76%	›
26	Sturm Graz	2	-3	1	1%	46%	54%	›
27	N.E.C. Nijmegen	2	-5	1	2%	53%	47%	›
28	Anderlecht	2	-2	0	1%	38%	62%	›
29	Celta	2	-2	0	2%	54%	46%	›
30	Hoffenheim	2	-3	0	2%	47%	53%	›
31	Viktoria Plzeň	2	-4	0	<1%	33%	67%	›
32	Marseille	2	-4	0	4%	68%	32%	›
33	Celtic	2	-5	0	1%	38%	62%	›
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	-5	0	<1%	6%	94%	›
35	Celje	2	-5	0	<1%	19%	81%	›
36	Lech Poznań	2	-8	0	<1%	19%	81%	›

Matchday 3 fixtures

Model chances for each match: home win, draw, away win. Times in your time zone.

Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar 16% · 21% · 63%
Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Ferencváros – Torreense 61% · 22% · 17%
Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 GNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen 46% · 26% · 28%
Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Juventus – Rennes 64% · 21% · 15%
Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Lech Poznań – Sunderland 29% · 26% · 45%
Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 OFI Crete – Leverkusen 13% · 19% · 67%
Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Sturm Graz – Marseille 28% · 26% · 46%
Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Union SG – Hapoel Beer-Sheva 64% · 21% · 15%
Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace 39% · 26% · 34%
Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Bournemouth – Milan 35% · 26% · 38%
Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Celje – Salzburg 27% · 25% · 48%
Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Celtic – Celta 39% · 26% · 35%
Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Hoffenheim – Lyon 35% · 26% · 38%
Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Jagiellonia – Anderlecht 38% · 26% · 35%
Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad 21% · 24% · 55%
Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Olympiacos – Sparta Praha 53% · 24% · 23%
Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Omonia – Benfica 17% · 22% · 61%
Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia 55% · 24% · 22%

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →

Matchdays

Every matchday has its own page: fixtures, probabilities and who has the most at stake.

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

How many points are needed?

How often a team finishing on each points total ends in the top 8 or at least 24th across the simulations.

8Top 2420%Top 80%

9Top 2471%Top 80%

10Top 2498%Top 80%

11Top 24100%Top 80%

12Top 24100%Top 80%

13Top 24100%Top 8<1%

14Top 24100%Top 88%

15Top 24100%Top 839%

16Top 24100%Top 882%

17Top 24100%Top 898%

18Top 24100%Top 8>99%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Frequently asked questions

How many points are needed for the top 8 in the Europa League?

In the simulations 16 points are usually enough. For 24th place or better, which means a knockout play-off spot, 9 points are usually enough.

Which teams are favourites in the Europa League?

The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Benfica (91%), Juventus (89%), Leverkusen (83%).

Which teams are on a knife edge?

Closest to a 50% chance of going through are OFI Crete, Hoffenheim, N.E.C. Nijmegen. For these teams a single result can decide everything.

How does the Europa League league phase work?

36 teams play in a single table, each playing 8 matches against different opponents. The top eight go straight to the round of 16, 9th to 24th play a knockout play-off, and 25th to 36th are eliminated.

When does the league phase finish and what comes next?

The final matchday is on 28 January, when all matches kick off at the same time. The knockout play-offs are on 18 and 25 February 2027, the round of 16 on 11 and 18 March 2027, and the final is on 26 May 2027 in Frankfurt.

How does the Europa League differ from the other two competitions?

All three work the same way: 36 teams in one table, the top 8 go straight to the round of 16, 9th to 24th play a knockout play-off and 25th to 36th are eliminated. The difference is the number of matches: 8 each in the Champions League and Europa League, but 6 in the Conference League, which is why its points threshold is lower.

Are these numbers a prediction?

No. They are probabilities from 30,000 simulations based on team strength ratings and results so far. They show what is more likely, not what will certainly happen, and they are recalculated after every matchday.