Europa League 2026/27: every team's chances of going through
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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase
18 of 144 league-phase matches have been played. The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Benfica (82%), Juventus (81%) and Leverkusen (75%). The tightest calls are Anderlecht, Viktoria Plzeň and OFI Crete, whose chances of going through are close to 50%. In the simulations, 15 points usually secure the top 8 and 9 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.
Table and chances
The current table with every team's chances from the simulations. Click a team to see its fixtures and scenarios.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Top 8 | Through | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | +5 | 3 | 81% | 99% | 1% |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | +4 | 3 | 45% | 94% | 6% |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | +3 | 3 | 23% | 83% | 17% |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | +3 | 3 | 25% | 85% | 15% |
| 5 | Union SG | 1 | +3 | 3 | 40% | 92% | 8% |
| 6 | Ferencváros | 1 | +2 | 3 | 20% | 83% | 17% |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | +2 | 3 | 82% | 99% | 1% |
| 8 | Leverkusen | 1 | +2 | 3 | 75% | 99% | 1% |
| 9 | OFI Crete | 1 | +2 | 3 | 4% | 49% | 51% |
| 10 | Lyon | 1 | +1 | 3 | 44% | 94% | 6% |
| 11 | Torreense | 1 | +1 | 3 | 7% | 60% | 40% |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 1 | +1 | 3 | 57% | 97% | 3% |
| 13 | Olympiacos | 1 | +1 | 3 | 36% | 91% | 9% |
| 14 | Salzburg | 1 | +1 | 3 | 29% | 88% | 12% |
| 15 | Omonia | 1 | +1 | 3 | 4% | 46% | 54% |
| 16 | Sunderland | 1 | +1 | 3 | 42% | 93% | 7% |
| 17 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23% | 83% | 17% |
| 18 | Hapoel Beer-Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1% | 27% | 73% |
| 19 | GNK Dinamo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6% | 54% | 46% |
| 20 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5% | 52% | 48% |
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | 41% | 59% |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12% | 71% | 29% |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5% | 50% | 50% |
| 24 | Lillestrøm | 1 | -1 | 0 | <1% | 15% | 85% |
| 25 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14% | 75% | 25% |
| 26 | Celta | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9% | 64% | 36% |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1% | 21% | 79% |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | -2 | 0 | 6% | 52% | 48% |
| 29 | Hoffenheim | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14% | 71% | 29% |
| 30 | Milan | 1 | -2 | 0 | 46% | 95% | 5% |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | 40% | 60% |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | -3 | 0 | 22% | 82% | 18% |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | -3 | 0 | <1% | 10% | 90% |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | -3 | 0 | 4% | 49% | 51% |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | -4 | 0 | 2% | 33% | 67% |
| 36 | N.E.C. Nijmegen | 1 | -5 | 0 | 9% | 63% | 37% |
Matchday 2 fixtures
Model chances for each match: home win, draw, away win. Times in your time zone.
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Beer-Sheva 61% · 22% · 17%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Celje – Omonia 44% · 26% · 30%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Lech Poznań – Leverkusen 17% · 22% · 61%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Lyon – Crystal Palace 44% · 26% · 30%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Salzburg – Milan 26% · 25% · 49%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Sparta Praha – Lillestrøm 61% · 22% · 17%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Torreense – Sunderland 26% · 25% · 49%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Union SG – Real Sociedad 41% · 26% · 33%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Benfica – Celtic 61% · 22% · 17%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Bournemouth – Sturm Graz 61% · 22% · 17%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Celta – Juventus 27% · 25% · 48%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Ferencváros – Viktoria Plzeň 44% · 26% · 30%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 GNK Dinamo – Anderlecht 43% · 26% · 31%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Hoffenheim – Beşiktaş 50% · 25% · 25%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Jagiellonia – Ararat-Armenia 58% · 23% · 19%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Marseille – Olympiacos 50% · 25% · 25%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 N.E.C. Nijmegen – Levski Sofia 55% · 24% · 21%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Rennes – OFI Crete 65% · 20% · 14%
How many points are needed?
How often a team finishing on each points total ends in the top 8 or at least 24th across the simulations.
How the league phase works
The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
All team pages
- Anderlecht
- Ararat-Armenia
- AZ Alkmaar
- Benfica
- Beşiktaş
- Bournemouth
- Celje
- Celta
- Celtic
- Crystal Palace
- Ferencváros
- GNK Dinamo
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Hoffenheim
- Jagiellonia
- Juventus
- Lech Poznań
- Leverkusen
- Levski Sofia
- Lillestrøm
- Lyon
- Marseille
- Milan
- N.E.C. Nijmegen
- OFI Crete
- Olympiacos
- Omonia
- Real Sociedad
- Rennes
- Salzburg
- Sparta Praha
- Sturm Graz
- Sunderland
- Torreense
- Union SG
- Viktoria Plzeň