What does Arsenal need to go through in the Champions League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 3, Arsenal are 7th with 7 points. Next match: 4 November, away against Slavia Praha. In our simulations Arsenal go through almost every time, so the real question is the top 8, which they reach in 86% of cases. 16 points usually secure a top-8 place, and 17 make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Borussia Dortmund (matchday 5) and Real Betis (matchday 7): each result moves their top-8 chances by about 31 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 3rd, average 5.
Arsenal matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 21:00Win 50%, draw 25%, defeat 25%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00Win 78%, draw 14%, defeat 7%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 46%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00Win 75%, draw 16%, defeat 9%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose>99%
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Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00Win 66%, draw 20%, defeat 14%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose>99%
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Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose100%
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Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose>99%
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Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00Win 94%, draw 4%, defeat 1%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose100%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Arsenal collect in the league phase.
Where could Arsenal finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Champions League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Paris Saint-Germain9100%
- 2Aston Villa9100%
- 3Liverpool9100%
- 4Real Madrid9100%
- 5Real Betis999%
- 6Stuttgart797%
- 7Arsenal7100%
- 8Barcelona6>99%
- 9Como691%
- 10Manchester City699%
- 11Club Brugge687%
- 12Sporting CP690%
- 13Borussia Dortmund695%
- 14Bayern München5>99%
- 15Roma477%
- 16Atlético de Madrid496%
- 17Shakhtar Donetsk462%
- 18PSV Eindhoven477%
- 19Villarreal382%
- 20Inter389%
- 21Manchester United360%
- 22Napoli389%
- 23Galatasaray355%
- 24LASK331%
- 25Sabah34%
- 26Feyenoord357%
- 27Lens338%
- 28Bodø/Glimt359%
- 29AEK Athens319%
- 30Leipzig364%
- 31Fenerbahçe230%
- 32Slavia Praha14%
- 33Viking19%
- 34Porto027%
- 35Lille014%
- 36Slovan Bratislava03%
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Arsenal's chances of going through in the Champions League?
Across 30,000 simulations Arsenal go through (24th place or better) in 100% of cases and reach the top 8 in 86%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Arsenal need to qualify?
11 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations.
When is Arsenal's next match?
4 November, away against Slavia Praha on matchday 4 of the Champions League.
Which match matters most for Arsenal?
The matchday 4 game away against Slavia Praha. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 0 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Champions League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.