Knockout Math
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What does Sabah need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Sabah are 34th with 0 points. Next match: 13 October, at home against Slavia Praha. In our simulations Sabah go through (24th place or better) in 2% of cases and make the top 8 in <1%. 10 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 11 points make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 2 game at home against Slavia Praha: winning or losing it moves the chances by 5 percentage points.

34thleague position
0point from 1 match
2%chance of going through (top 24)
<1%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 36th, average 34.

Sabah matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 21:00
    AwayManchester United0–4
    Win 5%, draw 12%, defeat 83%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 18:45
    HomeSlavia Praha –
    Win 23%, draw 25%, defeat 52%
    Chance of going through:If they win6%If they draw1%If they lose<1%
  3. Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 18:45
    HomeBorussia Dortmund –
    Win 10%, draw 17%, defeat 73%
    Chance of going through:If they win8%If they draw2%If they lose1%
  4. Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
    AwayViking –
    Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%
    Chance of going through:If they win5%If they draw1%If they lose1%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 18:45
    HomeBarcelona –
    Win 4%, draw 10%, defeat 87%
    Chance of going through:If they win11%If they draw2%If they lose1%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 18:45
    AwayVillarreal –
    Win 7%, draw 13%, defeat 80%
    Chance of going through:If they win10%If they draw3%If they lose1%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 18:45
    HomeNapoli –
    Win 9%, draw 16%, defeat 75%
    Chance of going through:If they win9%If they draw2%If they lose1%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    AwayArsenal –
    Win 1%, draw 4%, defeat 94%
    Chance of going through:If they win9%If they draw4%If they lose2%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Sabah collect in the league phase.

00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
84%
935%
1086%
11100%
12100%
13unlikely
14unlikely
15unlikely
16unlikely
17unlikely
18unlikely
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Sabah finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams