Knockout Math
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What does Roma need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Roma are 17th with 1 point. Next match: 14 October, at home against Real Madrid. In our simulations Roma go through (24th place or better) in 73% of cases and make the top 8 in 8%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against AEK Athens (matchday 7) and Lille (matchday 8): each result moves the chances by about 33 percentage points.

17thleague position
1point from 1 match
73%chance of going through (top 24)
8%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 18th, average 19.3.

Roma matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 18:45
    AwayFenerbahçe1–1
    Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 37%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00
    HomeReal Madrid –
    Win 22%, draw 24%, defeat 53%
    Chance of going through:If they win91%If they draw77%If they lose65%
  3. Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
    HomeSlovan Bratislava –
    Win 73%, draw 17%, defeat 10%
    Chance of going through:If they win81%If they draw59%If they lose45%
  4. Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
    AwayManchester United –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:If they win91%If they draw76%If they lose63%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
    AwayParis Saint-Germain –
    Win 10%, draw 17%, defeat 73%
    Chance of going through:If they win93%If they draw80%If they lose69%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00
    HomeSporting CP –
    Win 43%, draw 26%, defeat 31%
    Chance of going through:If they win88%If they draw69%If they lose57%
  7. Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00
    AwayAEK Athens –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 27%
    Chance of going through:If they win87%If they draw68%If they lose54%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomeLille –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:If they win87%If they draw69%If they lose54%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Roma collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
20%
30%
40%
50%
6<1%
71%
820%
972%
1098%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Roma finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams