What does Roma need to go through in the Champions League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 3, Roma are 15th with 4 points. Next match: 3 November, away against Manchester United. In our simulations Roma go through (24th place or better) in 77% of cases and make the top 8 in 5%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against AEK Athens (matchday 7) and Lille (matchday 8): each result moves the chances by about 37 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 19th, average 19.
Roma matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 18:45Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 35%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 56%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00Win 75%, draw 16%, defeat 9%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00Win 29%, draw 26%, defeat 45%Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw80%If they lose64%
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Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00Win 8%, draw 15%, defeat 76%Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw85%If they lose74%
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Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 32%Chance of going through:If they win93%If they draw75%If they lose60%
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Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00Win 49%, draw 25%, defeat 26%Chance of going through:If they win92%If they draw72%If they lose55%
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Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%Chance of going through:If they win91%If they draw71%If they lose53%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Roma collect in the league phase.
Where could Roma finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Champions League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Paris Saint-Germain9100%
- 2Aston Villa9100%
- 3Liverpool9100%
- 4Real Madrid9100%
- 5Real Betis999%
- 6Stuttgart797%
- 7Arsenal7100%
- 8Barcelona6>99%
- 9Como691%
- 10Manchester City699%
- 11Club Brugge687%
- 12Sporting CP690%
- 13Borussia Dortmund695%
- 14Bayern München5>99%
- 15Roma477%
- 16Atlético de Madrid496%
- 17Shakhtar Donetsk462%
- 18PSV Eindhoven477%
- 19Villarreal382%
- 20Inter389%
- 21Manchester United360%
- 22Napoli389%
- 23Galatasaray355%
- 24LASK331%
- 25Sabah34%
- 26Feyenoord357%
- 27Lens338%
- 28Bodø/Glimt359%
- 29AEK Athens319%
- 30Leipzig364%
- 31Fenerbahçe230%
- 32Slavia Praha14%
- 33Viking19%
- 34Porto027%
- 35Lille014%
- 36Slovan Bratislava03%
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Roma's chances of going through in the Champions League?
Across 30,000 simulations Roma go through (24th place or better) in 77% of cases and reach the top 8 in 5%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Roma need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.
When is Roma's next match?
3 November, away against Manchester United on matchday 4 of the Champions League.
Which match matters most for Roma?
The matchday 8 game at home against Lille. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 38 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Champions League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.