Knockout Math
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What does Juventus need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Juventus are 1st with 3 points. Next match: 15 October, away against Celta. In our simulations Juventus go through (24th place or better) in 99% of cases and make the top 8 in 81%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain.

1stleague position
3point from 1 match
99%chance of going through (top 24)
81%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 1st, average 5.2.

Juventus matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    HomeN.E.C. Nijmegen5–0
    Win 72%, draw 17%, defeat 11%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00
    AwayCelta –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 27%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw>99%If they lose98%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45
    HomeRennes –
    Win 63%, draw 21%, defeat 16%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00
    AwayAZ Alkmaar –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 27%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    HomeOmonia –
    Win 80%, draw 13%, defeat 7%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose96%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45
    AwayHapoel Beer-Sheva –
    Win 65%, draw 21%, defeat 15%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45
    AwayFerencváros –
    Win 56%, draw 23%, defeat 20%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    HomeReal Sociedad –
    Win 60%, draw 22%, defeat 18%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Juventus collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
4unlikely
5unlikely
6unlikely
70%
825%
974%
1099%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24100%
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Juventus finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille082%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams