Knockout Math
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What does Sturm Graz need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Sturm Graz are 20th with 1 point. Next match: 15 October, away against Bournemouth. In our simulations Sturm Graz go through (24th place or better) in 52% of cases and make the top 8 in 5%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against OFI Crete (matchday 7) and Celje (matchday 4): each result moves the chances by about 39 percentage points.

20thleague position
1point from 1 match
52%chance of going through (top 24)
5%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 29th, average 23.

Sturm Graz matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00
    HomeRennes0–0
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00
    AwayBournemouth –
    Win 17%, draw 22%, defeat 61%
    Chance of going through:If they win78%If they draw56%If they lose43%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45
    HomeMarseille –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 49%
    Chance of going through:If they win75%If they draw52%If they lose39%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00
    HomeCelje –
    Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win66%If they draw42%If they lose29%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    AwayHoffenheim –
    Win 19%, draw 23%, defeat 58%
    Chance of going through:If they win77%If they draw57%If they lose42%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45
    AwayAZ Alkmaar –
    Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%
    Chance of going through:If they win77%If they draw55%If they lose41%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45
    HomeOFI Crete –
    Win 54%, draw 24%, defeat 22%
    Chance of going through:If they win66%If they draw41%If they lose28%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwayGNK Dinamo –
    Win 29%, draw 26%, defeat 45%
    Chance of going through:If they win75%If they draw51%If they lose38%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Sturm Graz collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
88%
954%
1095%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Sturm Graz finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille082%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams