What does Real Madrid need to go through in the Champions League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 3, Real Madrid are 4th with 9 points. Next match: 4 November, away against AEK Athens. In our simulations Real Madrid go through almost every time, so the real question is the top 8, which they reach in 96% of cases. 16 points usually secure a top-8 place, and 17 make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against PSV Eindhoven (matchday 5) and AEK Athens (matchday 4): each result moves their top-8 chances by about 13 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 1st, average 3.2.
Real Madrid matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Tuesday 8 September, 21:00Win 56%, draw 24%, defeat 21%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00Win 56%, draw 24%, defeat 21%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00Win 72%, draw 17%, defeat 10%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 18:45Win 75%, draw 16%, defeat 9%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose100%
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Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00Win 71%, draw 18%, defeat 11%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose100%
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Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00Win 29%, draw 26%, defeat 45%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose100%
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Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00Win 90%, draw 8%, defeat 3%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose100%
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Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00Win 70%, draw 18%, defeat 12%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose100%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Real Madrid collect in the league phase.
Where could Real Madrid finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Champions League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Paris Saint-Germain9100%
- 2Aston Villa9100%
- 3Liverpool9100%
- 4Real Madrid9100%
- 5Real Betis999%
- 6Stuttgart797%
- 7Arsenal7100%
- 8Barcelona6>99%
- 9Como691%
- 10Manchester City699%
- 11Club Brugge687%
- 12Sporting CP690%
- 13Borussia Dortmund695%
- 14Bayern München5>99%
- 15Roma477%
- 16Atlético de Madrid496%
- 17Shakhtar Donetsk462%
- 18PSV Eindhoven477%
- 19Villarreal382%
- 20Inter389%
- 21Manchester United360%
- 22Napoli389%
- 23Galatasaray355%
- 24LASK331%
- 25Sabah34%
- 26Feyenoord357%
- 27Lens338%
- 28Bodø/Glimt359%
- 29AEK Athens319%
- 30Leipzig364%
- 31Fenerbahçe230%
- 32Slavia Praha14%
- 33Viking19%
- 34Porto027%
- 35Lille014%
- 36Slovan Bratislava03%
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Real Madrid's chances of going through in the Champions League?
Across 30,000 simulations Real Madrid go through (24th place or better) in 100% of cases and reach the top 8 in 96%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Real Madrid need to qualify?
12 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations.
When is Real Madrid's next match?
4 November, away against AEK Athens on matchday 4 of the Champions League.
Which match matters most for Real Madrid?
The matchday 4 game away against AEK Athens. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 0 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Champions League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.