Knockout Math
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What does LASK need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, LASK are 27th with 0 points. Next match: 14 October, at home against Liverpool. In our simulations LASK go through (24th place or better) in 11% of cases and make the top 8 in <1%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 6 game at home against Fenerbahçe: winning or losing it moves the chances by 21 percentage points.

27thleague position
0point from 1 match
11%chance of going through (top 24)
<1%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 35th, average 30.8.

LASK matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Tuesday 8 September, 18:45
    AwayAEK Athens0–1
    Win 23%, draw 24%, defeat 53%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 18:45
    HomeLiverpool –
    Win 8%, draw 15%, defeat 77%
    Chance of going through:If they win35%If they draw14%If they lose8%
  3. Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
    AwaySporting CP –
    Win 11%, draw 17%, defeat 72%
    Chance of going through:If they win32%If they draw14%If they lose8%
  4. Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
    HomeSlovan Bratislava –
    Win 47%, draw 26%, defeat 28%
    Chance of going through:If they win19%If they draw6%If they lose3%
  5. Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 18:45
    AwayBodø/Glimt –
    Win 17%, draw 22%, defeat 61%
    Chance of going through:If they win30%If they draw12%If they lose6%
  6. Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00
    HomeFenerbahçe –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 49%
    Chance of going through:If they win26%If they draw9%If they lose5%
  7. Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00
    AwayReal Madrid –
    Win 3%, draw 8%, defeat 89%
    Chance of going through:If they win36%If they draw17%If they lose10%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomePorto –
    Win 20%, draw 23%, defeat 56%
    Chance of going through:If they win28%If they draw10%If they lose5%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points LASK collect in the league phase.

00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
71%
811%
951%
1094%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15unlikely
16unlikely
17unlikely
18unlikely
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could LASK finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams