What does Salzburg need to go through in the Europa League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 2, Salzburg are 21st with 3 points. Next match: 22 October, away against Celje. In our simulations Salzburg go through (24th place or better) in 84% of cases and make the top 8 in 12%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Celje (matchday 3) and Sparta Praha (matchday 6): each result moves the chances by about 27 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 15th, average 17.1.
Salzburg matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00Win 47%, draw 26%, defeat 27%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45Win 25%, draw 25%, defeat 50%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 27%Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw79%If they lose68%
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Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 38%Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw83%If they lose73%
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Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45Win 73%, draw 17%, defeat 10%Chance of going through:If they win90%If they draw72%If they lose57%
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Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00Win 44%, draw 26%, defeat 30%Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw80%If they lose70%
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Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00Win 13%, draw 20%, defeat 67%Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw88%If they lose80%
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Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00Win 34%, draw 26%, defeat 39%Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw84%If they lose74%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Salzburg collect in the league phase.
Where could Salzburg finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Europa League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Juventus6100%
- 2Leverkusen6>99%
- 3Benfica6100%
- 4Beşiktaş698%
- 5Bournemouth6>99%
- 6Omonia682%
- 7Ferencváros697%
- 8Lyon699%
- 9Sunderland699%
- 10Olympiacos699%
- 11Sparta Praha480%
- 12Union SG496%
- 13Rennes491%
- 14GNK Dinamo476%
- 15Crystal Palace393%
- 16Milan399%
- 17Jagiellonia359%
- 18OFI Crete352%
- 19Torreense356%
- 20AZ Alkmaar386%
- 21Salzburg384%
- 22Real Sociedad172%
- 23Lillestrøm118%
- 24Hapoel Beer-Sheva120%
- 25Levski Sofia124%
- 26Sturm Graz146%
- 27N.E.C. Nijmegen153%
- 28Anderlecht038%
- 29Celta054%
- 30Hoffenheim047%
- 31Viktoria Plzeň033%
- 32Marseille068%
- 33Celtic038%
- 34Ararat-Armenia06%
- 35Celje019%
- 36Lech Poznań019%
How the league phase works
The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Salzburg's chances of going through in the Europa League?
Across 30,000 simulations Salzburg go through (24th place or better) in 84% of cases and reach the top 8 in 12%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Salzburg need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.
When is Salzburg's next match?
22 October, away against Celje on matchday 3 of the Europa League.
Which match matters most for Salzburg?
The matchday 5 game at home against Ararat-Armenia. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 33 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Europa League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.