What does Kairat Almaty need to go through in the Conference League?

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

Kairat Almaty will play 6 league-phase matches, 3 at home and 3 away. First match: 15 October, away against Riga. In our simulations Kairat Almaty go through (24th place or better) in 43% of cases and make the top 8 in 4%. 7 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 8 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Universitatea Craiova (matchday 5) and Mjällby (matchday 4): each result moves the chances by about 40 percentage points.

–league position (not started yet)

0points from 0 matches

43%chance of going through (top 24)

4%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 33rd, average 24.7.

Kairat Almaty matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

Matchday 1Thursday 15 October, 18:45

AwayRiga –

Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%

Chance of going through:If they win67%If they draw40%If they lose26%
Matchday 2Thursday 22 October, 16:30

HomePanathinaikos –

Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%

Chance of going through:If they win67%If they draw41%If they lose27%
Matchday 3Thursday 5 November, 18:45

AwayAtalanta –

Win 6%, draw 12%, defeat 82%

Chance of going through:If they win77%If they draw55%If they lose39%
Matchday 4Thursday 26 November, 16:30

HomeMjällby –

Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 35%

Chance of going through:If they win64%If they draw38%If they lose24%
Matchday 5Thursday 10 December, 16:30

HomeUniversitatea Craiova –

Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 35%

Chance of going through:If they win64%If they draw37%If they lose24%
Matchday 6Thursday 17 December, 21:00

AwayTwente –

Win 17%, draw 22%, defeat 61%

Chance of going through:If they win73%If they draw47%If they lose33%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Kairat Almaty collect in the league phase.

00%

10%

20%

30%

40%

5<1%

614%

771%

899%

9100%

10100%

11100%

12100%

13100%

14100%

15100%

16unlikely

17unlikely

18unlikely

almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Kairat Almaty finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Projected Conference League table

The league phase has not started yet, so teams are ordered by their average projected position. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

1Atalanta99%
2Brighton96%
3Monaco95%
4Freiburg94%
5Midtjylland92%
6Copenhagen91%
7Braga91%
8Getafe91%
9Twente89%
10Crvena Zvezda88%
11Ajax84%
12Gent82%
13Trabzonspor79%
14Aarhus79%
15Mjällby79%
16Brann75%
17Panathinaikos74%
18Hajduk Split71%
19Nordsjælland72%
20Hearts67%
21Sint-Truidense67%
22Universitatea Craiova66%
23Lugano65%
24Pafos55%
25CSKA Sofia53%
26Riga FC53%
27Jablonec50%
28Thun48%
29KuPS Kuopio47%
30Kairat Almaty43%
31Egnatia40%
32Kauno Žalgiris40%
33Borac35%
34Iberia Tbilisi25%
35Inter Escaldes12%
36Lincoln Red Imps11%

How the league phase works

The Conference League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 6 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.