Knockout Math
Live
EN

Olympiacos vs Sparta Praha: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Olympiacos10th, 6 pts
–Matchday 3
Sparta Praha11th, 4 pts
53%Olympiacos win
24%Draw
23%Sparta Praha win

The model gives Olympiacos a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Sparta Praha 23%. Olympiacos's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. Sparta Praha's chance of going through is 80% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 72%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeOlympiacos: top 8Olympiacos: throughSparta Praha: top 8Sparta Praha: through
Now57%99%11%80%
Olympiacos win72%>99%5%72%
Draw47%99%10%84%
Sparta Praha win35%96%26%95%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
37%Olympiacos clean sheet
19%Sparta Praha clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Olympiacos

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WJagiellonia H2–1
  2. MD2WMarseille A1–0
  3. MD3Sparta Praha H this match22 October
  4. MD4Rennes A5 November
  5. MD5Milan H26 November
  6. MD6Celje A10 December
  7. MD7Hoffenheim H21 January
  8. MD8Torreense A28 January

Sparta Praha

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WArarat-Armenia A4–1
  2. MD2DLillestrøm H1–1
  3. MD3Olympiacos A this match22 October
  4. MD4Bournemouth H5 November
  5. MD5AZ Alkmaar H26 November
  6. MD6Salzburg A10 December
  7. MD7Crystal Palace A21 January
  8. MD8Rennes H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague?

The model gives Olympiacos a 53% chance of winning and Sparta Praha 23%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Olympiacos and 1.0 for Sparta Praha, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Olympiacos?

Olympiacos's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 96%.

What does this match mean for Sparta Praha?

Sparta Praha's qualification chance is 80% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 84% and a defeat 72%.

When is Olympiacos vs Sparta Praha played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →