Knockout Math
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Olympiacos vs Sparta Praha: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Olympiacos13th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Sparta Praha3rd, 3 pts
53%Olympiacos win
24%Draw
23%Sparta Praha win

The model gives Olympiacos a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Sparta Praha 23%. Olympiacos's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 79%. Sparta Praha's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 76%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Olympiacos: top 8Olympiacos: throughSparta Praha: top 8Sparta Praha: through
Now36%91%23%83%
Olympiacos win49%97%14%76%
Draw27%88%23%86%
Sparta Praha win17%79%44%96%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%

Other matchday 3 fixtures