What does Atlético de Madrid need to go through in the Champions League?
← Back to the Champions League table
Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 3, Atlético de Madrid are 16th with 4 points. Next match: 3 November, at home against Bayern München. In our simulations Atlético de Madrid go through (24th place or better) in 96% of cases and make the top 8 in 24%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 8 game at home against Fenerbahçe: winning or losing it moves the chances by 14 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 11th, average 13.1.
Atlético de Madrid matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
-
Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 21:00Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%Chance of going through:Played
-
Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00Win 56%, draw 23%, defeat 20%Chance of going through:Played
-
Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00Win 42%, draw 26%, defeat 32%Chance of going through:Played
-
Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00Win 29%, draw 26%, defeat 45%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw97%If they lose93%
-
Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00Win 82%, draw 12%, defeat 6%Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw89%If they lose82%
-
Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00Win 44%, draw 26%, defeat 30%Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw96%If they lose91%
-
Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 18:45Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw95%If they lose89%
-
Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00Win 66%, draw 20%, defeat 14%Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw93%If they lose85%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Atlético de Madrid collect in the league phase.
Where could Atlético de Madrid finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Champions League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Paris Saint-Germain9100%
- 2Aston Villa9100%
- 3Liverpool9100%
- 4Real Madrid9100%
- 5Real Betis999%
- 6Stuttgart797%
- 7Arsenal7100%
- 8Barcelona6>99%
- 9Como691%
- 10Manchester City699%
- 11Club Brugge687%
- 12Sporting CP690%
- 13Borussia Dortmund695%
- 14Bayern München5>99%
- 15Roma477%
- 16Atlético de Madrid496%
- 17Shakhtar Donetsk462%
- 18PSV Eindhoven477%
- 19Villarreal382%
- 20Inter389%
- 21Manchester United360%
- 22Napoli389%
- 23Galatasaray355%
- 24LASK331%
- 25Sabah34%
- 26Feyenoord357%
- 27Lens338%
- 28Bodø/Glimt359%
- 29AEK Athens319%
- 30Leipzig364%
- 31Fenerbahçe230%
- 32Slavia Praha14%
- 33Viking19%
- 34Porto027%
- 35Lille014%
- 36Slovan Bratislava03%
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Atlético de Madrid's chances of going through in the Champions League?
Across 30,000 simulations Atlético de Madrid go through (24th place or better) in 96% of cases and reach the top 8 in 24%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Atlético de Madrid need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.
When is Atlético de Madrid's next match?
3 November, at home against Bayern München on matchday 4 of the Champions League.
Which match matters most for Atlético de Madrid?
The matchday 5 game at home against Viking. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 16 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Champions League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.