Knockout Math
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What does Atlético de Madrid need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Atlético de Madrid are 25th with 0 points. Next match: 13 October, at home against Manchester United. In our simulations Atlético de Madrid go through (24th place or better) in 89% of cases and make the top 8 in 22%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Fenerbahçe (matchday 8) and Manchester United (matchday 2): each result moves the chances by about 21 percentage points.

25thleague position
0point from 1 match
89%chance of going through (top 24)
22%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 11th, average 14.7.

Atlético de Madrid matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 21:00
    AwayLiverpool1–2
    Win 22%, draw 24%, defeat 54%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00
    HomeManchester United –
    Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw86%If they lose78%
  3. Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
    AwayStuttgart –
    Win 43%, draw 26%, defeat 31%
    Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw88%If they lose80%
  4. Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
    HomeBayern München –
    Win 29%, draw 26%, defeat 45%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw90%If they lose84%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
    HomeViking –
    Win 81%, draw 13%, defeat 6%
    Chance of going through:If they win92%If they draw79%If they lose68%
  6. Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00
    AwayPSV Eindhoven –
    Win 43%, draw 26%, defeat 31%
    Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw88%If they lose80%
  7. Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 18:45
    AwayBodø/Glimt –
    Win 52%, draw 25%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw87%If they lose77%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomeFenerbahçe –
    Win 64%, draw 21%, defeat 15%
    Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw83%If they lose74%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Atlético de Madrid collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
30%
40%
50%
60%
72%
830%
980%
1099%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21100%
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Atlético de Madrid finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams