Juventus vs Rennes: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45
The model gives Juventus a 64% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Rennes 15%. Juventus's top-8 chance is 89% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 72%. Rennes's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 88%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Juventus: top 8 | Juventus: through | Rennes: top 8 | Rennes: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 89% | 100% | 21% | 91% |
| Juventus win | 95% | 100% | 14% | 88% |
| Draw | 83% | 100% | 23% | 94% |
| Rennes win | 72% | >99% | 46% | 99% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Juventus
- MD1WN.E.C. Nijmegen H5–0
- MD2WCelta A2–1
- MD3Rennes H this match22 October
- MD4AZ Alkmaar A5 November
- MD5Omonia H26 November
- MD6Hapoel Beer-Sheva A10 December
- MD7Ferencváros A21 January
- MD8Real Sociedad H28 January
Rennes
- MD1DSturm Graz A0–0
- MD2WOFI Crete H2–1
- MD3Juventus A this match22 October
- MD4Olympiacos H5 November
- MD5N.E.C. Nijmegen A26 November
- MD6GNK Dinamo H10 December
- MD7Omonia H21 January
- MD8Sparta Praha A28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Juventus vs Rennes?
The model gives Juventus a 64% chance of winning and Rennes 15%, with a draw at 21%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (12%).
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Rennes?
The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 2.0 for Juventus and 0.8 for Rennes, and the match has 3 or more goals in 54% of cases.
What does this match mean for Juventus?
Juventus's top-8 chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 83% and a defeat 72%.
What does this match mean for Rennes?
Rennes's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 94% and a defeat 88%.
When is Juventus vs Rennes played?
Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 3).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar
- Ferencváros – Torreense
- GNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Lech Poznań – Sunderland
- OFI Crete – Leverkusen
- Union SG – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Sturm Graz – Marseille
- Bournemouth – Milan
- Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace
- Celtic – Celta
- Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia
- Jagiellonia – Anderlecht
- Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad
- Celje – Salzburg
- Olympiacos – Sparta Praha
- Omonia – Benfica
- Hoffenheim – Lyon