Knockout Math
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What does Fenerbahçe need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Fenerbahçe are 19th with 1 point. Next match: 14 October, away against Aston Villa. In our simulations Fenerbahçe go through (24th place or better) in 59% of cases and make the top 8 in 4%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against LASK (matchday 6) and Shakhtar Donetsk (matchday 5): each result moves the chances by about 37 percentage points.

19thleague position
1point from 1 match
59%chance of going through (top 24)
4%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 25th, average 22.

Fenerbahçe matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 18:45
    HomeRoma1–1
    Win 37%, draw 26%, defeat 36%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00
    AwayAston Villa –
    Win 19%, draw 23%, defeat 58%
    Chance of going through:If they win83%If they draw63%If they lose50%
  3. Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 18:45
    HomeSlavia Praha –
    Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win73%If they draw52%If they lose35%
  4. Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 18:45
    HomeLiverpool –
    Win 18%, draw 23%, defeat 59%
    Chance of going through:If they win83%If they draw63%If they lose50%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
    AwayShakhtar Donetsk –
    Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 36%
    Chance of going through:If they win79%If they draw56%If they lose41%
  6. Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00
    AwayLASK –
    Win 49%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:If they win75%If they draw51%If they lose37%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 18:45
    HomeVillarreal –
    Win 37%, draw 26%, defeat 36%
    Chance of going through:If they win79%If they draw56%If they lose41%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    AwayAtlético de Madrid –
    Win 15%, draw 21%, defeat 64%
    Chance of going through:If they win83%If they draw66%If they lose51%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Fenerbahçe collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
71%
817%
969%
1097%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Fenerbahçe finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams