What does Fenerbahçe need to go through in the Champions League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 3, Fenerbahçe are 31st with 2 points. Next match: 4 November, at home against Liverpool. In our simulations Fenerbahçe go through (24th place or better) in 30% of cases and make the top 8 in <1%. 10 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations). The biggest matches are against Shakhtar Donetsk (matchday 5) and LASK (matchday 6): each result moves the chances by about 39 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 31st, average 27.
Fenerbahçe matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 18:45Win 35%, draw 26%, defeat 38%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00Win 15%, draw 21%, defeat 63%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 18:45Win 54%, draw 24%, defeat 22%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 18:45Win 16%, draw 21%, defeat 63%Chance of going through:If they win59%If they draw33%If they lose21%
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Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00Win 35%, draw 26%, defeat 38%Chance of going through:If they win52%If they draw24%If they lose13%
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Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00Win 47%, draw 26%, defeat 28%Chance of going through:If they win46%If they draw21%If they lose10%
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Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 18:45Win 35%, draw 26%, defeat 39%Chance of going through:If they win51%If they draw25%If they lose13%
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Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00Win 14%, draw 20%, defeat 66%Chance of going through:If they win62%If they draw35%If they lose21%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Fenerbahçe collect in the league phase.
Where could Fenerbahçe finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Champions League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Paris Saint-Germain9100%
- 2Aston Villa9100%
- 3Liverpool9100%
- 4Real Madrid9100%
- 5Real Betis999%
- 6Stuttgart797%
- 7Arsenal7100%
- 8Barcelona6>99%
- 9Como691%
- 10Manchester City699%
- 11Club Brugge687%
- 12Sporting CP690%
- 13Borussia Dortmund695%
- 14Bayern München5>99%
- 15Roma477%
- 16Atlético de Madrid496%
- 17Shakhtar Donetsk462%
- 18PSV Eindhoven477%
- 19Villarreal382%
- 20Inter389%
- 21Manchester United360%
- 22Napoli389%
- 23Galatasaray355%
- 24LASK331%
- 25Sabah34%
- 26Feyenoord357%
- 27Lens338%
- 28Bodø/Glimt359%
- 29AEK Athens319%
- 30Leipzig364%
- 31Fenerbahçe230%
- 32Slavia Praha14%
- 33Viking19%
- 34Porto027%
- 35Lille014%
- 36Slovan Bratislava03%
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Fenerbahçe's chances of going through in the Champions League?
Across 30,000 simulations Fenerbahçe go through (24th place or better) in 30% of cases and reach the top 8 in <1%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Fenerbahçe need to qualify?
10 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations.
When is Fenerbahçe's next match?
4 November, at home against Liverpool on matchday 4 of the Champions League.
Which match matters most for Fenerbahçe?
The matchday 8 game away against Atlético de Madrid. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 40 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Champions League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.