What does Ajax need to go through in the Conference League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 1, Ajax are 26th with 0 points. Next match: 22 October, at home against Atalanta. In our simulations Ajax go through (24th place or better) in 69% of cases and make the top 8 in 11%. 7 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 8 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Sint-Truidense (matchday 5) and Getafe (matchday 6): each result moves the chances by about 38 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 21st, average 19.5.
Ajax matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Thursday 15 October, 18:45Win 43%, draw 26%, defeat 31%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Thursday 22 October, 21:00Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 47%Chance of going through:If they win90%If they draw70%If they lose57%
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Matchday 3Thursday 5 November, 18:45Win 34%, draw 26%, defeat 40%Chance of going through:If they win89%If they draw68%If they lose53%
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Matchday 4Thursday 26 November, 18:45Win 66%, draw 20%, defeat 14%Chance of going through:If they win80%If they draw55%If they lose40%
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Matchday 5Thursday 10 December, 21:00Win 44%, draw 26%, defeat 30%Chance of going through:If they win87%If they draw64%If they lose48%
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Matchday 6Thursday 17 December, 21:00Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%Chance of going through:If they win86%If they draw63%If they lose48%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Ajax collect in the league phase.
Where could Ajax finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Conference League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Brighton398%
- 2Copenhagen399%
- 3Trabzonspor393%
- 4Atalanta3>99%
- 5Sint-Truidense380%
- 6Mjällby388%
- 7Freiburg397%
- 8Lugano386%
- 9Monaco399%
- 10Panathinaikos385%
- 11Brann383%
- 12Hajduk Split391%
- 13Twente395%
- 14Gent393%
- 15Kairat Almaty141%
- 16Nordsjælland172%
- 17Getafe191%
- 18Midtjylland190%
- 19Universitatea Craiova168%
- 20Hearts163%
- 21Riga FC148%
- 22Egnatia146%
- 23Jablonec044%
- 24Crvena Zvezda078%
- 25Lincoln Red Imps07%
- 26Ajax069%
- 27Borac027%
- 28CSKA Sofia043%
- 29Thun038%
- 30Aarhus072%
- 31KuPS Kuopio031%
- 32Pafos050%
- 33Iberia Tbilisi016%
- 34Inter Escaldes06%
- 35Braga082%
- 36Kauno Žalgiris032%
How the league phase works
The Conference League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 6 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Ajax's chances of going through in the Conference League?
Across 30,000 simulations Ajax go through (24th place or better) in 69% of cases and reach the top 8 in 11%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Ajax need to qualify?
7 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 8 points make it almost certain.
When is Ajax's next match?
22 October, at home against Atalanta on matchday 2 of the Conference League.
Which match matters most for Ajax?
The matchday 4 game at home against Thun. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 40 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Conference League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.