What does Liverpool need to go through in the Champions League?
← Back to the Champions League table
Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 3, Liverpool are 3rd with 9 points. Next match: 4 November, away against Fenerbahçe. In our simulations Liverpool go through almost every time, so the real question is the top 8, which they reach in 92% of cases. 16 points usually secure a top-8 place, and 17 make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Fenerbahçe (matchday 4) and Club Brugge (matchday 5): each result moves their top-8 chances by about 19 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 2nd, average 4.
Liverpool matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
-
Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 21:00Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%Chance of going through:Played
-
Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 18:45Win 79%, draw 14%, defeat 7%Chance of going through:Played
-
Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00Win 68%, draw 19%, defeat 13%Chance of going through:Played
-
Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 18:45Win 63%, draw 21%, defeat 16%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose100%
-
Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00Win 57%, draw 23%, defeat 20%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose100%
-
Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00Win 72%, draw 17%, defeat 11%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose100%
-
Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00Win 39%, draw 26%, defeat 35%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose100%
-
Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00Win 76%, draw 16%, defeat 9%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw100%If they lose100%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Liverpool collect in the league phase.
Where could Liverpool finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Champions League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Paris Saint-Germain9100%
- 2Aston Villa9100%
- 3Liverpool9100%
- 4Real Madrid9100%
- 5Real Betis999%
- 6Stuttgart797%
- 7Arsenal7100%
- 8Barcelona6>99%
- 9Como691%
- 10Manchester City699%
- 11Club Brugge687%
- 12Sporting CP690%
- 13Borussia Dortmund695%
- 14Bayern München5>99%
- 15Roma477%
- 16Atlético de Madrid496%
- 17Shakhtar Donetsk462%
- 18PSV Eindhoven477%
- 19Villarreal382%
- 20Inter389%
- 21Manchester United360%
- 22Napoli389%
- 23Galatasaray355%
- 24LASK331%
- 25Sabah34%
- 26Feyenoord357%
- 27Lens338%
- 28Bodø/Glimt359%
- 29AEK Athens319%
- 30Leipzig364%
- 31Fenerbahçe230%
- 32Slavia Praha14%
- 33Viking19%
- 34Porto027%
- 35Lille014%
- 36Slovan Bratislava03%
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Liverpool's chances of going through in the Champions League?
Across 30,000 simulations Liverpool go through (24th place or better) in 100% of cases and reach the top 8 in 92%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Liverpool need to qualify?
11 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations.
When is Liverpool's next match?
4 November, away against Fenerbahçe on matchday 4 of the Champions League.
Which match matters most for Liverpool?
The matchday 4 game away against Fenerbahçe. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 0 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Champions League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.