Knockout Math
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What does Celtic need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Celtic are 28th with 0 points. Next match: 15 October, away against Benfica. In our simulations Celtic go through (24th place or better) in 52% of cases and make the top 8 in 6%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Omonia (matchday 6) and Torreense (matchday 5): each result moves the chances by about 37 percentage points.

28thleague position
0point from 1 match
52%chance of going through (top 24)
6%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 28th, average 22.9.

Celtic matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    HomeFerencváros1–3
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00
    AwayBenfica –
    Win 17%, draw 22%, defeat 61%
    Chance of going through:If they win76%If they draw56%If they lose44%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    HomeCelta –
    Win 40%, draw 26%, defeat 34%
    Chance of going through:If they win70%If they draw48%If they lose35%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00
    HomeBeşiktaş –
    Win 43%, draw 26%, defeat 31%
    Chance of going through:If they win70%If they draw46%If they lose34%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    AwayTorreense –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 27%
    Chance of going through:If they win68%If they draw44%If they lose33%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45
    AwayOmonia –
    Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%
    Chance of going through:If they win69%If they draw46%If they lose32%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00
    HomeMarseille –
    Win 32%, draw 26%, defeat 42%
    Chance of going through:If they win73%If they draw51%If they lose38%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwayUnion SG –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:If they win75%If they draw52%If they lose40%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Celtic collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
88%
950%
1094%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Celtic finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille082%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams