Knockout Math
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What does Anderlecht need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Anderlecht are 23rd with 0 points. Next match: 15 October, away against GNK Dinamo. In our simulations Anderlecht go through (24th place or better) in 50% of cases and make the top 8 in 5%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against OFI Crete (matchday 5) and Salzburg (matchday 4): each result moves the chances by about 36 percentage points.

23rdleague position
0point from 1 match
50%chance of going through (top 24)
5%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 32nd, average 23.4.

Anderlecht matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00
    HomeLyon1–2
    Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00
    AwayGNK Dinamo –
    Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%
    Chance of going through:If they win72%If they draw49%If they lose36%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    AwayJagiellonia –
    Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 36%
    Chance of going through:If they win69%If they draw46%If they lose34%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45
    HomeSalzburg –
    Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 35%
    Chance of going through:If they win69%If they draw45%If they lose34%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    AwayOFI Crete –
    Win 42%, draw 26%, defeat 32%
    Chance of going through:If they win68%If they draw45%If they lose32%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45
    HomeHoffenheim –
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%
    Chance of going through:If they win72%If they draw47%If they lose35%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00
    HomeSunderland –
    Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 35%
    Chance of going through:If they win68%If they draw46%If they lose34%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwayMarseille –
    Win 17%, draw 22%, defeat 61%
    Chance of going through:If they win76%If they draw54%If they lose42%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Anderlecht collect in the league phase.

00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
811%
956%
1096%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Anderlecht finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille082%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams