Knockout Math
Latviski

What does Marseille need to go through in the Europa League?

← Back to the Europa League table

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Marseille are 32nd with 0 points. Next match: 15 October, at home against Olympiacos. In our simulations Marseille go through (24th place or better) in 82% of cases and make the top 8 in 22%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Anderlecht (matchday 8) and Olympiacos (matchday 2): each result moves the chances by about 27 percentage points.

32ndleague position
0point from 1 match
82%chance of going through (top 24)
22%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 12th, average 15.8.

Marseille matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    AwayBeşiktaş1–4
    Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00
    HomeOlympiacos –
    Win 50%, draw 25%, defeat 25%
    Chance of going through:If they win92%If they draw78%If they lose68%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45
    AwaySturm Graz –
    Win 49%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:If they win92%If they draw79%If they lose68%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00
    AwayLeverkusen –
    Win 23%, draw 24%, defeat 53%
    Chance of going through:If they win94%If they draw85%If they lose76%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45
    HomeLevski Sofia –
    Win 73%, draw 17%, defeat 10%
    Chance of going through:If they win88%If they draw71%If they lose59%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45
    HomeCelta –
    Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win91%If they draw78%If they lose67%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00
    AwayCeltic –
    Win 42%, draw 26%, defeat 32%
    Chance of going through:If they win93%If they draw80%If they lose70%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    HomeAnderlecht –
    Win 61%, draw 22%, defeat 17%
    Chance of going through:If they win90%If they draw75%If they lose63%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Marseille collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
88%
954%
1094%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21100%
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Marseille finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille082%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams