Knockout Math
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What does Olympiacos need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Olympiacos are 13th with 3 points. Next match: 15 October, away against Marseille. In our simulations Olympiacos go through (24th place or better) in 91% of cases and make the top 8 in 36%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Torreense (matchday 8) and Celje (matchday 6): each result moves the chances by about 18 percentage points.

13thleague position
3point from 1 match
91%chance of going through (top 24)
36%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 7th, average 12.7.

Olympiacos matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00
    HomeJagiellonia2–1
    Win 64%, draw 21%, defeat 15%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00
    AwayMarseille –
    Win 25%, draw 25%, defeat 50%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw92%If they lose86%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    HomeSparta Praha –
    Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw88%If they lose79%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45
    AwayRennes –
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw92%If they lose84%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45
    HomeMilan –
    Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw91%If they lose85%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00
    AwayCelje –
    Win 52%, draw 25%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw88%If they lose79%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45
    HomeHoffenheim –
    Win 44%, draw 26%, defeat 30%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw90%If they lose82%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwayTorreense –
    Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw87%If they lose79%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Olympiacos collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
40%
50%
60%
70%
88%
953%
1094%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24100%
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Olympiacos finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille082%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams