What does Crvena Zvezda need to go through in the Conference League?

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

Crvena Zvezda will play 6 league-phase matches, 3 at home and 3 away. First match: 15 October, away against Lugano. In our simulations Crvena Zvezda go through (24th place or better) in 88% of cases and make the top 8 in 35%. 7 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 8 points make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 5 game away against Iberia Tbilisi: winning or losing it moves the chances by 24 percentage points.

–league position (not started yet)

0points from 0 matches

88%chance of going through (top 24)

35%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 4th, average 13.3.

Crvena Zvezda matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

Matchday 1Thursday 15 October, 18:45

AwayLugano –

Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 36%

Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw87%If they lose78%
Matchday 2Thursday 22 October, 18:45

HomeCopenhagen –

Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%

Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw86%If they lose77%
Matchday 3Thursday 5 November, 18:45

HomeInter Escaldes –

Win 77%, draw 15%, defeat 8%

Chance of going through:If they win92%If they draw75%If they lose66%
Matchday 4Thursday 26 November, 21:00

AwayGent –

Win 30%, draw 26%, defeat 44%

Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw89%If they lose80%
Matchday 5Thursday 10 December, 18:45

AwayIberia Tbilisi –

Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%

Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw84%If they lose72%
Matchday 6Thursday 17 December, 21:00

HomeTrabzonspor –

Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%

Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw86%If they lose76%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Crvena Zvezda collect in the league phase.

0unlikely

1unlikely

20%

30%

40%

51%

626%

787%

8>99%

9100%

10100%

11100%

12100%

13100%

14100%

15100%

16100%

17unlikely

18100%

almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Crvena Zvezda finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Projected Conference League table

The league phase has not started yet, so teams are ordered by their average projected position. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

1Atalanta99%
2Brighton96%
3Monaco95%
4Freiburg94%
5Midtjylland92%
6Copenhagen91%
7Braga91%
8Getafe91%
9Twente89%
10Crvena Zvezda88%
11Ajax84%
12Gent82%
13Trabzonspor79%
14Aarhus79%
15Mjällby79%
16Brann75%
17Panathinaikos74%
18Hajduk Split71%
19Nordsjælland72%
20Hearts67%
21Sint-Truidense67%
22Universitatea Craiova66%
23Lugano65%
24Pafos55%
25CSKA Sofia53%
26Riga FC53%
27Jablonec50%
28Thun48%
29KuPS Kuopio47%
30Kairat Almaty43%
31Egnatia40%
32Kauno Žalgiris40%
33Borac35%
34Iberia Tbilisi25%
35Inter Escaldes12%
36Lincoln Red Imps11%

How the league phase works

The Conference League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 6 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.