Knockout Math
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What does Leipzig need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Leipzig are 32nd with 0 points. Next match: 13 October, at home against PSV Eindhoven. In our simulations Leipzig go through (24th place or better) in 57% of cases and make the top 8 in 4%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Lens (matchday 5) and PSV Eindhoven (matchday 2): each result moves the chances by about 36 percentage points.

32ndleague position
0point from 1 match
57%chance of going through (top 24)
4%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 26th, average 22.5.

Leipzig matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 21:00
    AwayComo1–4
    Win 34%, draw 26%, defeat 40%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00
    HomePSV Eindhoven –
    Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%
    Chance of going through:If they win73%If they draw49%If they lose37%
  3. Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
    AwayReal Madrid –
    Win 13%, draw 19%, defeat 68%
    Chance of going through:If they win82%If they draw62%If they lose51%
  4. Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
    HomeManchester City –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 49%
    Chance of going through:If they win79%If they draw57%If they lose45%
  5. Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
    HomeLens –
    Win 50%, draw 25%, defeat 25%
    Chance of going through:If they win72%If they draw47%If they lose36%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00
    AwayManchester United –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:If they win79%If they draw58%If they lose44%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
    HomeShakhtar Donetsk –
    Win 60%, draw 22%, defeat 18%
    Chance of going through:If they win69%If they draw45%If they lose32%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    AwayFeyenoord –
    Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 36%
    Chance of going through:If they win76%If they draw54%If they lose39%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Leipzig collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
813%
961%
1096%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Leipzig finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams