Knockout Math
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What does Torreense need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Torreense are 11th with 3 points. Next match: 15 October, at home against Sunderland. In our simulations Torreense go through (24th place or better) in 60% of cases and make the top 8 in 7%. 10 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations). The biggest match is the matchday 4 game at home against Ararat-Armenia: winning or losing it moves the chances by 38 percentage points.

11thleague position
3point from 1 match
60%chance of going through (top 24)
7%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 24th, average 21.5.

Torreense matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    AwayLillestrøm2–1
    Win 30%, draw 26%, defeat 44%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45
    HomeSunderland –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 49%
    Chance of going through:If they win83%If they draw61%If they lose48%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45
    AwayFerencváros –
    Win 19%, draw 23%, defeat 58%
    Chance of going through:If they win86%If they draw64%If they lose50%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00
    HomeArarat-Armenia –
    Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win75%If they draw50%If they lose37%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    HomeCeltic –
    Win 27%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:If they win83%If they draw61%If they lose47%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00
    AwayReal Sociedad –
    Win 12%, draw 19%, defeat 69%
    Chance of going through:If they win88%If they draw68%If they lose53%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00
    AwayLech Poznań –
    Win 23%, draw 24%, defeat 53%
    Chance of going through:If they win84%If they draw63%If they lose48%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    HomeOlympiacos –
    Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%
    Chance of going through:If they win84%If they draw62%If they lose50%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Torreense collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
86%
944%
1090%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Torreense finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille082%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams