Knockout Math
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What does AEK Athens need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, AEK Athens are 16th with 3 points. Next match: 14 October, away against Shakhtar Donetsk. In our simulations AEK Athens go through (24th place or better) in 42% of cases and make the top 8 in 2%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Galatasaray (matchday 6) and Shakhtar Donetsk (matchday 2): each result moves the chances by about 41 percentage points.

16thleague position
3point from 1 match
42%chance of going through (top 24)
2%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 29th, average 24.9.

AEK Athens matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Tuesday 8 September, 18:45
    HomeLASK1–0
    Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00
    AwayShakhtar Donetsk –
    Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 47%
    Chance of going through:If they win68%If they draw40%If they lose27%
  3. Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
    AwayManchester City –
    Win 7%, draw 13%, defeat 80%
    Chance of going through:If they win76%If they draw51%If they lose38%
  4. Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 18:45
    HomeReal Madrid –
    Win 11%, draw 18%, defeat 71%
    Chance of going through:If they win74%If they draw48%If they lose36%
  5. Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
    AwayComo –
    Win 19%, draw 23%, defeat 58%
    Chance of going through:If they win71%If they draw44%If they lose32%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00
    HomeGalatasaray –
    Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%
    Chance of going through:If they win68%If they draw39%If they lose26%
  7. Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00
    HomeRoma –
    Win 27%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:If they win69%If they draw40%If they lose28%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    AwayBorussia Dortmund –
    Win 13%, draw 19%, defeat 68%
    Chance of going through:If they win73%If they draw47%If they lose35%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points AEK Athens collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
89%
952%
1093%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could AEK Athens finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams