What does Sunderland need to go through in the Europa League?

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Sunderland are 16th with 3 points. Next match: 15 October, away against Torreense. In our simulations Sunderland go through (24th place or better) in 93% of cases and make the top 8 in 42%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Levski Sofia (matchday 8) and GNK Dinamo (matchday 4): each result moves the chances by about 15 percentage points.

16thleague position

3point from 1 match

93%chance of going through (top 24)

42%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 6th, average 11.5.

Sunderland matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00

HomeAZ Alkmaar1–0

Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%

Chance of going through:Played
Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45

AwayTorreense –

Win 49%, draw 25%, defeat 26%

Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw92%If they lose86%
Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45

AwayLech Poznań –

Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%

Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw93%If they lose87%
Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00

HomeGNK Dinamo –

Win 51%, draw 25%, defeat 24%

Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw92%If they lose85%
Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00

HomeJagiellonia –

Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%

Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw90%If they lose84%
Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00

AwayMilan –

Win 15%, draw 21%, defeat 64%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw95%If they lose91%
Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00

AwayAnderlecht –

Win 35%, draw 26%, defeat 38%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw93%If they lose88%
Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00

HomeLevski Sofia –

Win 63%, draw 21%, defeat 16%

Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw90%If they lose82%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Sunderland collect in the league phase.

0unlikely

1unlikely

2unlikely

3unlikely

4unlikely

50%

60%

70%

87%

952%

1095%

11100%

12100%

13100%

14100%

15100%

16100%

17100%

18100%

19100%

20100%

21100%

22100%

23unlikely

24100%

almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Sunderland finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

1Juventus399%
2Crystal Palace394%
3Sparta Praha383%
4Beşiktaş385%
5Union SG392%
6Ferencváros383%
7Benfica399%
8Leverkusen399%
9OFI Crete349%
10Lyon394%
11Torreense360%
12Bournemouth397%
13Olympiacos391%
14Salzburg388%
15Omonia346%
16Sunderland393%
17Rennes183%
18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
19GNK Dinamo154%
20Sturm Graz152%
21Jagiellonia041%
22Real Sociedad071%
23Anderlecht050%
24Lillestrøm015%
25AZ Alkmaar075%
26Celta064%
27Levski Sofia021%
28Celtic052%
29Hoffenheim071%
30Milan095%
31Celje040%
32Marseille082%
33Ararat-Armenia010%
34Viktoria Plzeň049%
35Lech Poznań033%
36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.