What does Lugano need to go through in the Conference League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 1, Lugano are 8th with 3 points. Next match: 22 October, away against Getafe. In our simulations Lugano go through (24th place or better) in 86% of cases and make the top 8 in 23%. 7 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 8 points make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 3 game at home against Kauno Žalgiris: winning or losing it moves the chances by 30 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 13th, average 15.2.
Lugano matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Thursday 15 October, 18:45Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 35%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Thursday 22 October, 18:45Win 20%, draw 23%, defeat 57%Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw91%If they lose80%
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Matchday 3Thursday 5 November, 21:00Win 57%, draw 23%, defeat 19%Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw80%If they lose65%
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Matchday 4Thursday 26 November, 18:45Win 37%, draw 26%, defeat 37%Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw87%If they lose73%
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Matchday 5Thursday 10 December, 18:45Win 20%, draw 23%, defeat 56%Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw90%If they lose80%
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Matchday 6Thursday 17 December, 21:00Win 44%, draw 26%, defeat 30%Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw85%If they lose71%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Lugano collect in the league phase.
Where could Lugano finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Conference League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Brighton398%
- 2Copenhagen399%
- 3Trabzonspor393%
- 4Atalanta3>99%
- 5Sint-Truidense380%
- 6Mjällby388%
- 7Freiburg397%
- 8Lugano386%
- 9Monaco399%
- 10Panathinaikos385%
- 11Brann383%
- 12Hajduk Split391%
- 13Twente395%
- 14Gent393%
- 15Kairat Almaty141%
- 16Nordsjælland172%
- 17Getafe191%
- 18Midtjylland190%
- 19Universitatea Craiova168%
- 20Hearts163%
- 21Riga FC148%
- 22Egnatia146%
- 23Jablonec044%
- 24Crvena Zvezda078%
- 25Lincoln Red Imps07%
- 26Ajax069%
- 27Borac027%
- 28CSKA Sofia043%
- 29Thun038%
- 30Aarhus072%
- 31KuPS Kuopio031%
- 32Pafos050%
- 33Iberia Tbilisi016%
- 34Inter Escaldes06%
- 35Braga082%
- 36Kauno Žalgiris032%
How the league phase works
The Conference League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 6 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Lugano's chances of going through in the Conference League?
Across 30,000 simulations Lugano go through (24th place or better) in 86% of cases and reach the top 8 in 23%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Lugano need to qualify?
7 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 8 points make it almost certain.
When is Lugano's next match?
22 October, away against Getafe on matchday 2 of the Conference League.
Which match matters most for Lugano?
The matchday 3 game at home against Kauno Žalgiris. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 30 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Conference League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.