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Champions League qualification chances 2026/27 | Top 8 & top 24

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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase

54 of 144 league-phase matches have been played. The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Real Madrid (96%), Paris Saint-Germain (96%) and Liverpool (92%). The tightest calls are Galatasaray, Feyenoord and Bodø/Glimt, whose chances of going through are close to 50%. In the simulations, 16 points usually secure the top 8 and 9 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.

Table and chances

The current table with every team's chances from the simulations. Click a team to see its fixtures and scenarios.

#TeamPGDPtsTop 8ThroughOut
1Paris Saint-Germain3+9996%100%<1%
2Aston Villa3+9962%100%<1%
3Liverpool3+5992%100%<1%
4Real Madrid3+5996%100%<1%
5Real Betis3+3936%99%1%
6Stuttgart3+5729%97%3%
7Arsenal3+4786%100%<1%
8Barcelona3+5671%>99%<1%
9Como3+5611%91%9%
10Manchester City3+4645%99%1%
11Club Brugge3+3610%87%13%
12Sporting CP3+3613%90%10%
13Borussia Dortmund3+1618%95%5%
14Bayern München3+5564%>99%<1%
15Roma3+345%77%23%
16Atlético de Madrid3+1424%96%4%
17Shakhtar Donetsk3+142%62%38%
18PSV Eindhoven3045%77%23%
19Villarreal3035%82%18%
20Inter3-1311%89%11%
21Manchester United3-132%60%40%
22Napoli3-239%89%11%
23Galatasaray3-331%55%45%
24LASK3-33<1%31%69%
25Sabah3-33<1%4%96%
26Feyenoord3-432%57%43%
27Lens3-43<1%38%62%
28Bodø/Glimt3-532%59%41%
29AEK Athens3-53<1%19%81%
30Leipzig3-533%64%36%
31Fenerbahçe3-62<1%30%70%
32Slavia Praha3-31<1%4%96%
33Viking3-41<1%9%91%
34Porto3-40<1%27%73%
35Lille3-60<1%14%86%
36Slovan Bratislava3-1200%3%97%

Matchday 4 fixtures

Model chances for each match: home win, draw, away win. Times in your time zone.

  1. Tue 3 Nov, 18:45 Galatasaray – Stuttgart 39% · 26% · 35%
  2. Tue 3 Nov, 18:45 Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP 28% · 26% · 47%
  3. Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München 29% · 26% · 45%
  4. Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Barcelona – Aston Villa 59% · 23% · 19%
  5. Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Bodø/Glimt – Lille 43% · 26% · 31%
  6. Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Feyenoord – Inter 23% · 24% · 53%
  7. Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 LASK – Slovan Bratislava 50% · 25% · 25%
  8. Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Manchester United – Roma 45% · 26% · 29%
  9. Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain 16% · 22% · 62%
  10. Wed 4 Nov, 18:45 AEK Athens – Real Madrid 9% · 16% · 75%
  11. Wed 4 Nov, 18:45 Fenerbahçe – Liverpool 16% · 21% · 63%
  12. Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis 51% · 25% · 25%
  13. Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Leipzig – Manchester City 24% · 25% · 51%
  14. Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Lens – Como 37% · 26% · 37%
  15. Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Porto – Napoli 34% · 26% · 39%
  16. Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge 46% · 26% · 28%
  17. Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Slavia Praha – Arsenal 9% · 16% · 75%
  18. Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Viking – Sabah 53% · 24% · 23%

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →

Matchdays

Every matchday has its own page: fixtures, probabilities and who has the most at stake.

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

How many points are needed?

How often a team finishing on each points total ends in the top 8 or at least 24th across the simulations.

8Top 2415%Top 80%
9Top 2464%Top 80%
10Top 2497%Top 80%
11Top 24100%Top 80%
12Top 24100%Top 80%
13Top 24100%Top 8<1%
14Top 24100%Top 85%
15Top 24100%Top 830%
16Top 24100%Top 878%
17Top 24100%Top 898%
18Top 24100%Top 8>99%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Frequently asked questions

How many points are needed for the top 8 in the Champions League?

In the simulations 16 points are usually enough. For 24th place or better, which means a knockout play-off spot, 9 points are usually enough.

Which teams are favourites in the Champions League?

The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Real Madrid (96%), Paris Saint-Germain (96%), Liverpool (92%).

Which teams are on a knife edge?

Closest to a 50% chance of going through are Galatasaray, Feyenoord, Bodø/Glimt. For these teams a single result can decide everything.

How does the Champions League league phase work?

36 teams play in a single table, each playing 8 matches against different opponents. The top eight go straight to the round of 16, 9th to 24th play a knockout play-off, and 25th to 36th are eliminated.

When does the league phase finish and what comes next?

The final matchday is on 27 January, when all matches kick off at the same time. The knockout play-offs are on 16/17 and 23/24 February 2027, the round of 16 on 9/10 and 16/17 March 2027, and the final is on 5 June 2027 in Madrid (Estadio Metropolitano).

How does the Champions League differ from the other two competitions?

All three work the same way: 36 teams in one table, the top 8 go straight to the round of 16, 9th to 24th play a knockout play-off and 25th to 36th are eliminated. The difference is the number of matches: 8 each in the Champions League and Europa League, but 6 in the Conference League, which is why its points threshold is lower.

Are these numbers a prediction?

No. They are probabilities from 30,000 simulations based on team strength ratings and results so far. They show what is more likely, not what will certainly happen, and they are recalculated after every matchday.

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