Champions League 2026/27: every team's chances of going through
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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase
18 of 144 league-phase matches have been played. The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Bayern München (83%), Real Madrid (81%) and Liverpool (77%). The tightest calls are Feyenoord, Lille and Galatasaray, whose chances of going through are close to 50%. In the simulations, 16 points usually secure the top 8 and 9 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.
Table and chances
The current table with every team's chances from the simulations. Click a team to see its fixtures and scenarios.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Top 8 | Through | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | +5 | 3 | 74% | 99% | 1% |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | +5 | 3 | 83% | >99% | <1% |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | +4 | 3 | 69% | 99% | 1% |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | +4 | 3 | 19% | 86% | 14% |
| 5 | Como | 1 | +3 | 3 | 10% | 78% | 22% |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | +2 | 3 | 21% | 89% | 11% |
| 7 | Stuttgart | 1 | +2 | 3 | 20% | 88% | 12% |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | +2 | 3 | 54% | 98% | 2% |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | +1 | 3 | 12% | 82% | 18% |
| 10 | Lens | 1 | +1 | 3 | 10% | 76% | 24% |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 1 | +1 | 3 | 34% | 95% | 5% |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | +1 | 3 | 34% | 95% | 5% |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | +1 | 3 | 81% | >99% | <1% |
| 14 | Liverpool | 1 | +1 | 3 | 77% | >99% | <1% |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | +1 | 3 | 77% | >99% | <1% |
| 16 | AEK Athens | 1 | +1 | 3 | 2% | 42% | 58% |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8% | 73% | 27% |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2% | 44% | 56% |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4% | 59% | 41% |
| 20 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6% | 66% | 34% |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5% | 63% | 37% |
| 22 | Slavia Praha | 1 | -1 | 0 | <1% | 21% | 79% |
| 23 | Club Brugge | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1% | 36% | 64% |
| 24 | Lille | 1 | -1 | 0 | 2% | 47% | 53% |
| 25 | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22% | 89% | 11% |
| 26 | Inter | 1 | -1 | 0 | 36% | 95% | 5% |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | -1 | 0 | <1% | 11% | 89% |
| 28 | Napoli | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21% | 90% | 10% |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | -2 | 0 | 2% | 44% | 56% |
| 30 | Viking | 1 | -2 | 0 | <1% | 10% | 90% |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | -2 | 0 | 6% | 66% | 34% |
| 32 | Leipzig | 1 | -3 | 0 | 4% | 57% | 43% |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | -4 | 0 | 3% | 47% | 53% |
| 34 | Sabah | 1 | -4 | 0 | <1% | 2% | 98% |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | -5 | 0 | <1% | 11% | 89% |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | -5 | 0 | 2% | 41% | 59% |
Matchday 2 fixtures
Model chances for each match: home win, draw, away win. Times in your time zone.
- Tue 13 Oct, 18:45 Lens – Sporting CP 37% · 26% · 36%
- Tue 13 Oct, 18:45 Sabah – Slavia Praha 23% · 25% · 52%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Arsenal – Lille 73% · 17% · 10%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United 53% · 24% · 23%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Galatasaray – Barcelona 19% · 23% · 58%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Inter – Club Brugge 67% · 20% · 14%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven 45% · 26% · 29%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Viking – Bayern München 6% · 12% · 82%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Villarreal – Napoli 36% · 26% · 38%
- Wed 14 Oct, 18:45 Feyenoord – Como 40% · 26% · 34%
- Wed 14 Oct, 18:45 LASK – Liverpool 8% · 15% · 77%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe 58% · 23% · 19%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Bodø/Glimt – Borussia Dortmund 29% · 26% · 45%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Manchester City – Paris Saint-Germain 34% · 26% · 39%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Real Betis – Porto 40% · 26% · 34%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Roma – Real Madrid 22% · 24% · 53%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens 47% · 26% · 28%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Slovan Bratislava – Stuttgart 19% · 23% · 58%
How many points are needed?
How often a team finishing on each points total ends in the top 8 or at least 24th across the simulations.
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
All team pages
- AEK Athens
- Arsenal
- Aston Villa
- Atlético de Madrid
- Barcelona
- Bayern München
- Bodø/Glimt
- Borussia Dortmund
- Club Brugge
- Como
- Fenerbahçe
- Feyenoord
- Galatasaray
- Inter
- LASK
- Leipzig
- Lens
- Lille
- Liverpool
- Manchester City
- Manchester United
- Napoli
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Porto
- PSV Eindhoven
- Real Betis
- Real Madrid
- Roma
- Sabah
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- Slavia Praha
- Slovan Bratislava
- Sporting CP
- Stuttgart
- Viking
- Villarreal