What does Manchester United need to go through in the Champions League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 3, Manchester United are 21st with 3 points. Next match: 3 November, at home against Roma. In our simulations Manchester United go through (24th place or better) in 60% of cases and make the top 8 in 2%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Leipzig (matchday 6) and Roma (matchday 4): each result moves the chances by about 43 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 27th, average 22.2.
Manchester United matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 21:00Win 80%, draw 13%, defeat 7%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00Win 20%, draw 23%, defeat 56%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 18:45Win 32%, draw 26%, defeat 42%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%Chance of going through:If they win80%If they draw51%If they lose37%
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Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 46%Chance of going through:If they win85%If they draw60%If they lose44%
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Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00Win 47%, draw 26%, defeat 27%Chance of going through:If they win79%If they draw51%If they lose36%
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Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00Win 20%, draw 23%, defeat 57%Chance of going through:If they win85%If they draw64%If they lose50%
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Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00Win 30%, draw 26%, defeat 43%Chance of going through:If they win84%If they draw58%If they lose44%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Manchester United collect in the league phase.
Where could Manchester United finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Champions League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Paris Saint-Germain9100%
- 2Aston Villa9100%
- 3Liverpool9100%
- 4Real Madrid9100%
- 5Real Betis999%
- 6Stuttgart797%
- 7Arsenal7100%
- 8Barcelona6>99%
- 9Como691%
- 10Manchester City699%
- 11Club Brugge687%
- 12Sporting CP690%
- 13Borussia Dortmund695%
- 14Bayern München5>99%
- 15Roma477%
- 16Atlético de Madrid496%
- 17Shakhtar Donetsk462%
- 18PSV Eindhoven477%
- 19Villarreal382%
- 20Inter389%
- 21Manchester United360%
- 22Napoli389%
- 23Galatasaray355%
- 24LASK331%
- 25Sabah34%
- 26Feyenoord357%
- 27Lens338%
- 28Bodø/Glimt359%
- 29AEK Athens319%
- 30Leipzig364%
- 31Fenerbahçe230%
- 32Slavia Praha14%
- 33Viking19%
- 34Porto027%
- 35Lille014%
- 36Slovan Bratislava03%
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Manchester United's chances of going through in the Champions League?
Across 30,000 simulations Manchester United go through (24th place or better) in 60% of cases and reach the top 8 in 2%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Manchester United need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.
When is Manchester United's next match?
3 November, at home against Roma on matchday 4 of the Champions League.
Which match matters most for Manchester United?
The matchday 6 game at home against Leipzig. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 43 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Champions League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.