What does Atalanta need to go through in the Conference League?

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

Atalanta will play 6 league-phase matches, 3 at home and 3 away. First match: 15 October, at home against Pafos. In our simulations Atalanta go through (24th place or better) in 99% of cases and make the top 8 in 85%. 7 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations).

–league position (not started yet)

0points from 0 matches

99%chance of going through (top 24)

85%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 1st, average 4.4.

Atalanta matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

Matchday 1Thursday 15 October, 21:00

HomePafos –

Win 77%, draw 15%, defeat 8%

Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose97%
Matchday 2Thursday 22 October, 21:00

AwayAjax –

Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%

Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose99%
Matchday 3Thursday 5 November, 18:45

HomeKairat Almaty –

Win 82%, draw 12%, defeat 6%

Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw98%If they lose97%
Matchday 4Thursday 26 November, 21:00

AwayBorac –

Win 75%, draw 16%, defeat 9%

Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose97%
Matchday 5Thursday 10 December, 18:45

AwayRiga –

Win 71%, draw 18%, defeat 11%

Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose97%
Matchday 6Thursday 17 December, 21:00

HomeMjällby –

Win 78%, draw 14%, defeat 8%

Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose97%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Atalanta collect in the league phase.

0unlikely

1unlikely

2unlikely

3unlikely

4unlikely

50%

624%

791%

8>99%

9100%

10100%

11100%

12100%

13100%

14100%

15100%

16100%

17unlikely

18100%

almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Atalanta finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Projected Conference League table

The league phase has not started yet, so teams are ordered by their average projected position. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

How the league phase works

The Conference League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 6 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.