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What does Lech Poznań need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Lech Poznań are 35th with 0 points. Next match: 15 October, at home against Leverkusen. In our simulations Lech Poznań go through (24th place or better) in 33% of cases and make the top 8 in 2%. 10 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 11 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against OFI Crete (matchday 8) and Ferencváros (matchday 6): each result moves the chances by about 34 percentage points.

35thleague position
0point from 1 match
33%chance of going through (top 24)
2%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 35th, average 26.7.

Lech Poznań matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    AwayCrystal Palace0–4
    Win 15%, draw 21%, defeat 64%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45
    HomeLeverkusen –
    Win 17%, draw 22%, defeat 61%
    Chance of going through:If they win58%If they draw36%If they lose24%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45
    HomeSunderland –
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%
    Chance of going through:If they win53%If they draw29%If they lose19%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00
    AwayBenfica –
    Win 11%, draw 18%, defeat 71%
    Chance of going through:If they win63%If they draw39%If they lose27%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45
    AwayUnion SG –
    Win 19%, draw 23%, defeat 58%
    Chance of going through:If they win59%If they draw35%If they lose24%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00
    HomeFerencváros –
    Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 35%
    Chance of going through:If they win51%If they draw27%If they lose18%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00
    HomeTorreense –
    Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win46%If they draw22%If they lose14%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwayOFI Crete –
    Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 37%
    Chance of going through:If they win52%If they draw28%If they lose18%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Lech Poznań collect in the league phase.

00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
83%
933%
1086%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18unlikely
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Lech Poznań finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille082%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams